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Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View

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  • Shiller, Robert
  • Campbell, John

Abstract

This paper examines postwar U.S. term structure data and finds that for almost any combination of maturities between one month and ten years, a high yield spread between a longer-term and a shorter-term interest rate forecasts rising shorter-term interest rates over the long term, but a declining yield on the longer-term bond over the short term. This pattern is inconsistent with the expectations theory of the term structure, but is consistent with a model in which the spread is proportional to the value implied by the expectations theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Shiller, Robert & Campbell, John, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Scholarly Articles 3221490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hrv:faseco:3221490
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    References listed on IDEAS

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