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A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates

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Author Info
John Y. Campbell
Robert J. Shiller

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Abstract

Recent empirical research on the term structure of interest rates has shown that the long-term interest rate is well described by adistributed lag on short-term interest rates, but does not conform to the expectations theory of the term structure. It has been suggested that the long rate "overreacts" to the short rate. This paper presents aunified taxonomy of risk premia, or deviations from the expectations theory. This enables the hypothesis of overreaction to be formally stated. It is shown that, if anything, the long rate has underreacted to the short rate. However, the independent movement of the long rate is primarily responsible for the failure of the expectations theory.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1203.

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Date of creation: Sep 1983
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1203

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Sargent, Thomas J., 1979. "A note on maximum likelihood estimation of the rational expectations model of the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 133-143, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Do Long-Term Interest Rates Overreact to Short-Term Interest Rates?," NBER Working Papers 1345, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Franco Modigliani & Richard Sutch, 1967. "Debt Management and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: An Empirical Analysis of Recent Experience," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 569. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1981. "Exact linear rational expectations models: specification and estimation," Staff Report 71, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  5. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 667, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Modigliani, Franco & Shiller, Robert J, 1973. "Inflation, Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 40(157), pages 12-43, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. John Y. Campbell, 1986. "A Defense of Traditional Hypotheses About the Term Structure of InterestRates," NBER Working Papers 1508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Martin D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1990. "Do Stationary Risk Premia Explain It All? Evidence from the Term Struct," NBER Working Papers 3451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Robert J. Shiller & J. Huston McCulloch, 1987. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 2341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," NBER Working Papers 3153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. John Y. Campbell & John Ammer, 1991. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 3760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Robert J. Shiller, 1985. "Conventional Valuation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1610, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Chikashi Tsuji, 2006. "Overreactions in the options markets in Japan," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 115-121, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. G. Pfann & P. Schotman & R. Tschernig, . "Nonlinear Interest Rate Dynamics and Implications for the Term Structure," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1994-43, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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  10. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," NBER Working Papers 1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Michael Hutchison & Charles Pigott, 1984. "Budget deficits, exchange rates and the current account: theory and U. S. evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 5-25. [Downloadable!]
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