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Rational Expectations, the Expectations Hypothesis, and Treasury Bill Yields: An Econometric Analysis

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Author Info
David S. Jones
V. Vance Roley
Abstract

This paper tests the joint hypothesis of rational expectations and the expectations model of the term structure for three- and six-month Treasury bills. Previous studies are extended in three directions. First, common efficient markets-rational expectations tests are compared, and it is shown that four of the five tests considered are asymptotically equivalent, and that the fifth is less restrictive than the other four. Second, the joint hypothesis is tested using weekly data for Treasury bills maturing in exactly 13 and 26 weeks beginning in 1970 and ending in 1979. In contrast, previous studies using comparable data have typically discarded 12/13 of the sample to form a nonoverlapping data set. Finally, a more complete set of possible determinants of time-varying term premiums is tested.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0869.

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Date of creation: Feb 1984
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0869

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  5. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1982. "Monetary Policy and Short-Term Interest Rates: An Efficient Markets-Rational Expectations Approach," NBER Working Papers 0693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. McCulloch, J Huston, 1975. "An Estimate of the Liquidity Premium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(1), pages 95-119, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 291-304, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Hakkio, Craig S., 1981. "The term structure of the forward premium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 41-58. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  16. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Alternative Tests of Rational Expectations Models: The Case of the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 0563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Robert J. Shiller, 1981. "The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency," NBER Working Papers 0565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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