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Rational Expectations, the Expectations Hypothesis, and Treasury Bill Yields: An Econometric Analysis

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  • David S. Jones
  • V. Vance Roley
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    Abstract

    This paper tests the joint hypothesis of rational expectations and the expectations model of the term structure for three- and six-month Treasury bills. Previous studies are extended in three directions. First, common efficient markets-rational expectations tests are compared, and it is shown that four of the five tests considered are asymptotically equivalent, and that the fifth is less restrictive than the other four. Second, the joint hypothesis is tested using weekly data for Treasury bills maturing in exactly 13 and 26 weeks beginning in 1970 and ending in 1979. In contrast, previous studies using comparable data have typically discarded 12/13 of the sample to form a nonoverlapping data set. Finally, a more complete set of possible determinants of time-varying term premiums is tested.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0869.

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    Date of creation: Feb 1984
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    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0869

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    3. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1978. "Efficient-Markets Theory: Implications for Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(3), pages 707-752.
    4. Shiller, Robert J., 1981. "Alternative tests of rational expectations models : The case of the term structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 71-87, May.
    5. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
    6. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
    7. Singleton, Kenneth J, 1980. "Expectations Models of the Term Structure and Implied Variance Bounds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1159-76, December.
    8. Thomas J. Sargent, 1978. "A note on maximum likelihood estimation of the rational expectations model of the term structure," Staff Report 26, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    9. Mishkin, Frederie S., 1981. "Monetary policy and long-term interest rates : An efficient markets approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 29-55.
    10. Roley, V Vance, 1981. "The Determinants of the Treasury Security Yield Curve," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1103-26, December.
    11. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. " Monetary Policy and Short-Term Interest Rates: An Efficient Markets-Rational Expectations Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 63-72, March.
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    20. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1980. "Survey Evidence on The Rationality of Interest Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 0261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Abel, Andrew B & Mishkin, Frederic S, 1983. "On the Econometric Testing of Rationality-Market Efficiency," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 318-23, May.
    22. Modigliani, Franco & Shiller, Robert J, 1973. "Inflation, Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 40(157), pages 12-43, February.
    23. Fama, Eugene F., 1976. "Forward rates as predictors of future spot rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 361-377, October.
    24. Friedman, Benjamin M., 1980. "Survey evidence on the `rationality' of interest rate expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 453-465, October.
    25. Pesando, James E, 1975. "Determinants of Term Premiums in the Market for United States Treasury Bills," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(5), pages 1317-27, December.
    26. Singleton, Kenneth J, 1980. "Maturity-Specific Disturbances and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 603-14, November.
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