On expectations, term premiums and the volatility of long-term interest rates
AbstractThe paper first identifies how large must be the range in which ex ante yields on long-relative to short-term bonds vary if term premiums -- are to account for a significant fraction of the variance of the holding- period yields on long-term bonds. This paper then extends Shiller's bound to the case of a time-varying term premium and readily identifies the variance in the term premium necessary to salvage the efficient markets model if the variance of these holding-period yields exceeds the bound implied by the rational expectations model. The role of transactions costs is noted and the possibility explored that evidence of excess volatility need not imply the existence of unexploited profit opportunities under the rational expectations model.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.
Volume (Year): 12 (1983)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566
Other versions of this item:
- James E. Pesando, 1980. "On Expectations, Term Premiums and the Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 0595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
- Singleton, Kenneth J, 1980. "Expectations Models of the Term Structure and Implied Variance Bounds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1159-76, December.
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- McCulloch, J Huston, 1975. "An Estimate of the Liquidity Premium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(1), pages 95-119, February.
- Modigliani, Franco & Shiller, Robert J, 1973. "Inflation, Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 40(157), pages 12-43, February.
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"The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency,"
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American Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 291-304, May.
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- Charles Freedman, 1981. "Some Theoretical Aspects of Base Control," NBER Working Papers 0650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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