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Macroeconomic Theory for a World of Imperfect Knowledge

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  • Frydman Roman

    (New York University)

  • Goldberg Michael D.

    (University of New Hampshire)

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    Abstract

    We have recently proposed an alternative approach to economic analysis, which we call Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE). Although IKE builds on the methodology of contemporary macroeconomics by modeling aggregate outcomes on the basis of mathematical representations of individual decision making, it jettisons models that generate sharp predictions. In this paper, we elaborate on and extend the arguments that led us to propose IKE. We show analytically that in order to avoid the fundamental epistemological flaws inherent in extant models, economists must stop short of fully prespecifying change. We also show how acknowledging the limits of their knowledge may enable economists to shed new light on the basic features of observed time-series of market outcomes, such as fluctuations and risk in asset markets, which have confounded extant approaches for decades.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Capitalism and Society.

    Volume (Year): 3 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 3 (December)
    Pages: 1-78

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    Handle: RePEc:bpj:capsoc:v:3:y:2008:i:3:n:1

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    Web page: http://www.degruyter.com

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    Web: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/cas

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    Cited by:
    1. Barker, Richard & Hendry, John & Roberts, John & Sanderson, Paul, 2012. "Can company-fund manager meetings convey informational benefits? Exploring the rationalisation of equity investment decision making by UK fund managers," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 207-222.
    2. David Colander & Hans Föllmer & Armin Haas & Michael Goldberg & Katarina Juselius & Alan Kirman & Thomas Lux & Brigitte Sloth, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics," Kiel Working Papers 1489, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    3. Robert Kelm, 2010. "The Exchange Rate and Two Price Inflations in Poland in the Period 1999-2009. Do Globalization and Balassa-Samuelson Effect Matter?," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 2(4), pages 315-349, September.
    4. Olesia Kozlova, 2013. "Forward-Rate Bias, Imperfect Knowledge, and Risk: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries," 2013 Papers pko627, Job Market Papers.

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