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Testing hypotheses in an I(2) model with piecewise linear trends. An analysis of the persistent long swings in the Dmk/$ rate

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  • Johansen, Søren
  • Juselius, Katarina
  • Frydman, Roman
  • Goldberg, Michael

Abstract

This paper discusses the I(2) model with breaks in the deterministic component and illustrates the model with an analysis of German and US prices, exchange rates, and interest rates in the period 1975-1999. It provides new results on the likelihood ratio test of overidentifying restrictions on the cointegrating relations when they contain piecewise linear trends. One important aim of the paper is to demonstrate that a structured I(2) analysis is useful for a better understanding of the empirical regularities underlying the persistent swings in nominal exchange rates, typical in periods of floating exchange rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 158 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (September)
Pages: 117-129

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:158:y:2010:i:1:p:117-129

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

Related research

Keywords: PPP Long swings puzzle Cointegrated VAR Test of overidentification;

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Cited by:
  1. Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2014. "Bond market co-movements, expected inflation and the GBP-USD equilibrium real exchange rate," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 242-256.
  2. Joscha Beckmann, 2011. "Nonlinear Adjustment, Purchasing Power Parity and the Role of Nominal Exchange Rates and Prices," Ruhr Economic Papers 0272, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  3. Josh Stillwagon, 2014. "Subjective Term Premia, Consumer Sentiment, and the Zero Lower Bound," Working Papers 1401, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
  4. Mosconi, Rocco & Paruolo, Paolo, 2014. "Rank and order conditions for identification in simultaneous system of cointegrating equations with integrated variables of order two," MPRA Paper 53589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2013. "Is there a Homogeneous Causality Pattern between Oil Prices and Currencies of Oil Importers and Exporters?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0431, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  6. Juselius, Katarina, 2014. "Testing for near I(2) trends when the signal-to-noise ratio is small," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 8(21), pages 1-30.
  7. Zanetti Chini, Emilio, 2010. "Does the purchasing power parity hypothesis hold after 1998?," MPRA Paper 27225, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Francesca DI IORIO & Stefano FACHIN & Riccardo LUCCHETTI, 2013. "Can you do the wrong thing and still be right? Hypothesis Testing in I(2) and near-I(2) cointegrated VARs," Working Papers 395, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.

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