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An empirical investigation of asset price bubbles in Latin American emerging financial markets

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Author Info

  • L. Sarno
  • M. P. Taylor

Abstract

A generally accepted view among researchers and policy makers is that large capital flows to Latin America starting from the second half of the 1980s through the 1990s may have caused speculative bubbles in the asset markets of recipient economies. This article tests for asset price bubbles in the stock markets of six Latin American countries using data for the last 10 years or so. It employs recently developed robust estimation techniques which are specifically designed to exploit the skewness and leptokurtosis that bubbles may engender in the data. It finds massive deviations from normality in both stock prices and dividends series and the test results provide strong evidence for the existence of stock price bubbles in each of the markets examined.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 13 (2003)
Issue (Month): 9 ()
Pages: 635-643

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:13:y:2003:i:9:p:635-643

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References

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  1. James G. MacKinnon, 2010. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  2. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 1999. "The Persistence of Capital Inflows and the Behaviour of Stock Prices in East Asia Emerging Markets: Some Empirical Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2150, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. D. F. I. Folkerts-Landau & Donald J. Mathieson & Morris Goldstein & Liliana Rojas-Suárez & José Saúl Lizondo & Timothy D. Lane, 1991. "Determinants and Systemic Consequences of International Capital Flows," IMF Occasional Papers 77, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Im, K.S., 1996. "Least Square Approach to Non-Normal Disturbances," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9603, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 1998. "Periodically collapsing stock price bubbles: a robust test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 221-228, November.
  6. Hansen, Bruce E., 1995. "Rethinking the Univariate Approach to Unit Root Testing: Using Covariates to Increase Power," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1148-1171, October.
  7. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  9. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1993. "Efficient Estimation with Orthogonal Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(04), pages 687-687, August.
  10. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Okongwu, Chudozie, 1996. "Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 1-23, January.
  11. Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-30, September.
  12. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," MPRA Paper 13843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Montiel, Peter J, 1996. "The Surge in Capital Inflows to Developing Countries: An Analytical Overview," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 10(1), pages 51-77, January.
  14. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim & Yuen, Chi-Wa, 1998. "A pecking order of capital inflows and international tax principles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 45-68, February.
  15. Taylor, Mark P & Sarno, Lucio, 1997. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Long- and Short-Term Determinants," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 11(3), pages 451-70, September.
  16. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Hot money, accounting labels and the permanence of capital flows to developing countries: an empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 337-364, August.
  17. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1983. "Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:5:p:1148-71 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens, Stijn & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1998. "Equity and bond flows to Latin America and Asia: the role of global and country factors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 439-463, April.
  20. Corbo, Vittorio & Hernandez, Leonardo, 1996. "Macroeconomic Adjustment to Capital Inflows: Lessons from Recent Latin American and East Asian Experience," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 11(1), pages 61-85, February.
  21. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-30, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Yu, Tongkui & Li, Honggang, 2008. "Dynamic Regimes of a Multi-agent Stock Market Model," MPRA Paper 14339, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Cerqueti, Roy & Costantini, Mauro, 2011. "Testing for rational bubbles in the presence of structural breaks: Evidence from nonstationary panels," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2598-2605, October.
  3. James E. Payne & George A. Waters, 2005. "REIT markets: periodically collapsing negative bubbles?," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 65-69, March.
  4. James Payne & George Waters, 2007. "Have Equity REITs Experienced Periodically Collapsing Bubbles?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 207-224, February.
  5. Ahmad, Mahyudin, 2012. "Duration dependence test for rational speculative bubble: the strength and weakness," MPRA Paper 42156, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Jirasakuldech, Benjamas & Emekter, Riza & Rao, Ramesh P., 2008. "Do Thai stock prices deviate from fundamental values?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 298-315, June.

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