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Impact factors

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  • Omtzigt, Pieter
  • Paruolo, Paolo

Abstract

In this paper we discuss sensitivity of forecast with respect to the information set considered in prediction; we define a sensitivit measure called impact factor, IF. We calculate this measure in VAR processes integrated of order 0, 1 and 2. For VAR processes this measure is as simple function of the impulse response coefficients. For integrated VAR systems this measure is shown to have a direct interpretation in terms of long-run forecasts. Various applications of this concept are reviewed, including one on the interpretation and effectiveness of economics policies and one on the sensitivity of forecasts with respect to data revisions. A unified approach to inference on the IF is given, showing under what circumstances standard asymptotic inference can be conducted also in systems integrated of order 1 and 2.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 128 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (September)
Pages: 31-68

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:128:y:2005:i:1:p:31-68

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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References

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  1. Paruolo, Paolo & Rahbek, Anders, 1999. "Weak exogeneity in I(2) VAR systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 281-308, December.
  2. Clara Jørgensen & Hans Christian Kongsted & Anders Rahbek, 1996. "Trend-Stationarity in the I(2) Cointegration Model," Discussion Papers 96-12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  3. repec:cup:etheor:v:8:y:1992:i:2:p:188-202 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Paruolo, Paolo, 1997. "Asymptotic Inference on the Moving Average Impact Matrix in Cointegrated 1(1) VAR Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(01), pages 79-118, February.
  5. Gourieroux,Christian & Monfort,Alain, 1995. "Statistics and Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521477444.
  6. Banerjee, Anurag N. & Magnus, Jan R., 1999. "The sensitivity of OLS when the variance matrix is (partially) unknown," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 295-323, October.
  7. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, September.
  8. Hans Christian Kongsted, 2003. "An I(2) cointegration analysis of small-country import price determination," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 53-71, 06.
  9. Johansen, Søren, 1995. "A Stastistical Analysis of Cointegration for I(2) Variables," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 25-59, February.
  10. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  11. Gourieroux,Christian & Monfort,Alain, 1995. "Statistics and Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521477451.
  12. Banerjee, A. & Cockerell, L. & Russell, B., 1998. "An I(2) Analysis of Inflation and the Markup," Economics Series Working Papers 99203, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  13. Gourieroux,Christian & Monfort,Alain, 1995. "Statistics and Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405515.
  14. Hans Christian Kongsted, 2002. "Testing the Nominal-to-Real Transformation," Discussion Papers 02-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  15. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1998. "Impulse response and forecast error variance asymptotics in nonstationary VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 21-56.
  16. Estrella, Arturo, 2003. "Critical Values And P Values Of Bessel Process Distributions: Computation And Application To Structural Break Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(06), pages 1128-1143, December.
  17. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  18. Paruolo, Paolo, 2000. "Asymptotic Efficiency Of The Two Stage Estimator In I (2) Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(04), pages 524-550, August.
  19. Faliva, Mario & Zoia, Maria Grazia, 2002. "On A Partitioned Inversion Formula Having Useful Applications In Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(02), pages 525-530, April.
  20. Johansen, Søren, 1992. "A Representation of Vector Autoregressive Processes Integrated of Order 2," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(02), pages 188-202, June.
  21. Paruolo Paolo, 2002. "Testing for common trends in conditional I(2) VAR models," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0216, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
  22. Paruolo, Paolo, 1997. "Standard Errors for the Long-Run Variance Matrix," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(02), pages 305-306, April.
  23. Paruolo, Paolo, 1996. "On the determination of integration indices in I(2) systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 313-356.
  24. Donald W. K. Andrews, 2003. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point: A Corrigendum," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 395-397, January.
  25. Paruolo Paolo, 2002. "Common features and common I(2) trends in VAR systems," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0217, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
  26. Gourieroux,Christian & Monfort,Alain, 1995. "Statistics and Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521471626.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fanelli, Luca & Paruolo, Paolo, 2010. "Speed of adjustment in cointegrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 130-141, September.
  2. Paolo Paruolo & Ben Murphy & Greet Janssen-Maenhout, 2012. "Do Emissions and Income Have a Common Trend? A Country-Specific, Time-Series, Global Analysis, 1970-2008," Working Paper Series 32_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  3. Paruolo Paolo, 2004. "Common trends and cycles in I(2) VAR systems," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0217tris, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
  4. Girardi, Riccardo & Paruolo, Paolo, 2013. "Wages and prices in Europe before and after the onset of the Monetary Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 643-653.
  5. Paruolo Paolo, 2004. "The likelihood ratio test for the rank of a cointegration submatrix," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf04024, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
  6. Paruolo Paolo, 2002. "Testing for common trends in conditional I(2) VAR models," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0216, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.

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