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Abstract

In this paper we discuss sensitivity of forecast with respect to the information set considered in prediction; we define a sensitivit measure called impact factor, IF. We calculate this measure in VAR processes integrated of order 0, 1 and 2. For VAR processes this measure is as simple function of the impulse response coefficients. For integrated VAR systems this measure is shown to have a direct interpretation in terms of long-run forecasts. Various applications of this concept are reviewed, including one on the interpretation and effectiveness of economics policies and one on the sensitivity of forecasts with respect to data revisions. A unified approach to inference on the IF is given, showing under what circumstances standard asymptotic inference can be conducted also in systems integrated of order 1 and 2.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 128 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (September)
Pages: 31-68

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:128:y:2005:i:1:p:31-68

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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1. Paruolo Paolo, 2002. "Testing for common trends in conditional I(2) VAR models," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0216, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
2. Anindya Banerjee & Lynne Cockerell & Bill Russell, 2000. "An I(2) Analysis of Inflation and the Markup," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 120, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
   
   • Anindya Banerjee & Lynne Cockerell & Bill Russell, 2001. "An I(2) analysis of inflation and the markup," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 221-240.
   • Banerjee, A. & Cockerell, L. & Russell, B., 1998. "An I(2) Analysis of Inflation and the Markup," Economics Series Working Papers 99203, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
3. Paruolo, Paolo & Rahbek, Anders, 1999. "Weak exogeneity in I(2) VAR systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 281-308, December.
4. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1995. "Impulse Response and Forecast Error Variance Asymptotics in Nonstationary VAR's," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1102, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
   
   • Phillips, Peter C. B., 1998. "Impulse response and forecast error variance asymptotics in nonstationary VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 21-56.
5. Hans Christian Kongsted, 2002. "Testing the Nominal-to-Real Transformation," Discussion Papers 02-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
6. Johansen, Søren, 1995. "A Stastistical Analysis of Cointegration for I(2) Variables," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 25-59, February.
   
   • Johansen, S., 1991. "A Statistical Analsysis of Cointegration for I(2) Variables," Papers 77, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
7. Paruolo, Paolo, 1996. "On the determination of integration indices in I(2) systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 313-356.
8. Paruolo, Paolo, 2002. "Asymptotic Inference On The Moving Average Impact Matrix In Cointegrated I (2) Var Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 673-690, June.
   
   • Paruolo, Paolo, 1997. "Asymptotic Inference on the Moving Average Impact Matrix in Cointegrated 1(1) VAR Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(01), pages 79-118, February.
9. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
   
   • Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
10. Paruolo, Paolo, 2000. "Asymptotic Efficiency Of The Two Stage Estimator In I (2) Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(04), pages 524-550, August.
11. Estrella, Arturo, 2003. "Critical Values And P Values Of Bessel Process Distributions: Computation And Application To Structural Break Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(06), pages 1128-1143, December.
12. Banerjee, Anurag N. & Magnus, Jan R., 2000. "On the sensitivity of the usual t- and F-tests to covariance misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 157-176, March.
13. Clara Jørgensen & Hans Christian Kongsted & Anders Rahbek, 1996. "Trend-Stationarity in the I(2) Cointegration Model," Discussion Papers 96-12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    
    • Rahbek, Anders & Christian Kongsted, Hans & Jorgensen, Clara, 1999. "Trend stationarity in the I(2) cointegration model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 265-289, June.
14. Paruolo Paolo, 2002. "Common features and common I(2) trends in VAR systems," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0217, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
15. Banerjee, Anurag N. & Magnus, Jan R., 1999. "The sensitivity of OLS when the variance matrix is (partially) unknown," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 295-323, October.
16. Johansen, Søren, 1992. "A Representation of Vector Autoregressive Processes Integrated of Order 2," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(02), pages 188-202, June.
17. repec:cup:etheor:v:8:y:1992:i:2:p:188-202 is not listed on IDEAS
18. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, September.
19. Paruolo, Paolo, 1997. "Standard Errors for the Long-Run Variance Matrix," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(02), pages 305-306, April.
20. Hans Christian Kongsted, 2003. "An I(2) cointegration analysis of small-country import price determination," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 53-71, 06.
21. Faliva, Mario & Zoia, Maria Grazia, 2002. "On A Partitioned Inversion Formula Having Useful Applications In Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(02), pages 525-530, April.
22. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.

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Citations

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Cited by:

1. Paolo Paruolo, 2006. "The Likelihood Ratio Test for the Rank of a Cointegration Submatrix," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 921-948, December.
   
   • Paruolo Paolo, 2004. "The likelihood ratio test for the rank of a cointegration submatrix," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf04024, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
2. Paruolo Paolo, 2004. "Common trends and cycles in I(2) VAR systems," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0217tris, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
   
   • Paruolo, Paolo, 2006. "Common trends and cycles in I(2) VAR systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 143-168, May.
   • Paruolo Paolo, 2003. "Common trends and cycles in I(2) VAR systems," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0217bis, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
3. Fanelli, Luca & Paruolo, Paolo, 2007. "Speed of Adjustment in Cointegrated Systems," MPRA Paper 9174, University Library of Munich, Germany.
   
   • Fanelli, Luca & Paruolo, Paolo, 2010. "Speed of adjustment in cointegrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 130-141, September.
4. Paruolo Paolo, 2002. "Testing for common trends in conditional I(2) VAR models," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0216, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
5. Paolo Paruolo & Ben Murphy & Greet Janssen-Maenhout, 2012. "Do Emissions and Income Have a Common Trend? A Country-Specific, Time-Series, Global Analysis, 1970-2008," Working Paper Series 32_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
   
   • Paolo Paruolo & Ben Murphy & Greet Janssens-Maenhout, 2011. "Do emissions and income have a common trend? A country-specific, time-series, global analysis, 1970-2008," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf1113, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.

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