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Impact factors

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Author Info
Omtzigt Pieter () (Faculty of Economics and Econometrics, WB Amsterdam)
Paruolo Paolo () (Department of Economics, University of Insubria, Italy)

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Abstract

In this paper we discuss sensitivity of forecast with respect to the information set considered in prediction; we define a sensitivit measure called impact factor, IF. We calculate this measure in VAR processes integrated of order 0, 1 and 2. For VAR processes this measure is as simple function of the impulse response coefficients. For integrated VAR systems this measure is shown to have a direct interpretation in terms of long-run forecasts. Various applications of this concept are reviewed, including one on the interpretation and effectiveness of economics policies and one on the sensitivity of forecasts with respect to data revisions. A unified approach to inference on the IF is given, showing under what circumstances standard asymptotic inference can be conducted also in systems integrated of order 1 and 2.

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File URL: http://eco.uninsubria.it/dipeco/Quaderni/files/QF2002_4.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Insubria in its series Economics and Quantitative Methods with number qf0203.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ins:quaeco:qf0203

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Related research
Keywords: Forecasting; cointegration; dynamic multipliers; (Generalized) impulse responses; VAR.;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Paruolo Paolo, 2002. "Testing for common trends in conditional I(2) VAR models," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0216, Department of Economics, University of Insubria. [Downloadable!]
  2. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1998. "Impulse response and forecast error variance asymptotics in nonstationary VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 21-56. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Johansen, S., 1991. "A Statistical Analsysis of Cointegration for I(2) Variables," Papers 77, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
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  4. Paruolo, Paolo & Rahbek, Anders, 1999. "Weak exogeneity in I(2) VAR systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 281-308, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Paruolo Paolo, 2002. "Common features and common I(2) trends in VAR systems," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0217, Department of Economics, University of Insubria. [Downloadable!]
  6. repec:cup:etheor:v:8:y:1992:i:2:p:188-202 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Paruolo, Paolo, 1997. "Standard Errors for the Long-Run Variance Matrix," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(02), pages 305-306, April. [Downloadable!]
  8. Paruolo, Paolo, 1996. "On the determination of integration indices in I(2) systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 313-356. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Anindya Banerjee & Lynne Cockerell & Bill Russell, 2001. "An I(2) analysis of inflation and the markup," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 221-240. [Downloadable!]
  10. Paruolo, Paolo, 2002. "Asymptotic Inference On The Moving Average Impact Matrix In Cointegrated I (2) Var Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 673-690, June. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Paruolo, Paolo, 2000. "Asymptotic Efficiency Of The Two Stage Estimator In I (2) Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(04), pages 524-550, August. [Downloadable!]
  13. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fanelli, Luca & Paruolo, Paolo, 2007. "Speed of Adjustment in Cointegrated Systems," MPRA Paper 9174, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Paruolo Paolo, 2003. "Common trends and cycles in I(2) VAR systems," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0217bis, Department of Economics, University of Insubria. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Paruolo Paolo, 2002. "Testing for common trends in conditional I(2) VAR models," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0216, Department of Economics, University of Insubria. [Downloadable!]
  4. Paruolo Paolo, 2004. "The likelihood ratio test for the rank of a cointegration submatrix," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf04024, Department of Economics, University of Insubria. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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