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Testing the purchasing power parity through I(2) cointegration techniques

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  • Luca Fanelli

    (Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Bologna, Italy)

  • Emanuele Bacchiocchi

    (Department of Economics and Business Administration, University of Milan, Italy)

Abstract

This paper contributes to the empirical literature on the purchasing power parity (PPP) over the post-Bretton Woods period by providing a time-series based interpretation of the controversial evidence characterizing the dynamics of real exchange rates. It is shown that the persistence of deviations from the PPP between a set of European countries and the United States may be empirically attributed to the presence of I(2) stochastic trends in prices using Consumer Price Indices. Interestingly, the slow adjustment towards the equilibrium can be modelled through 'integral-proportional' equilibrium correction models and this evidence can be partly reconciled with theories where the inflation rate reduces the markup of profit-maximizing firms acting on imperfectly competitive markets. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.786
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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2005-v20.6/
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 20 (2005)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 749-770

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:20:y:2005:i:6:p:749-770

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  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1995. "A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion Within and Between Countries," NBER Working Papers 5006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Katarina Juselius & Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "International Parity Relationships between Germany and the United States: A Joint Modelling Approach," Discussion Papers 00-10, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  3. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt0sx02651, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  4. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & John Barkoulas, 1998. "Nonlinear Adjustment to Purchasing Power Parity in the post-Bretton Woods Era," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 404., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 16 Nov 1999.
  5. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February.
  6. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  7. Kongsted, Hans Christian, 2005. "Testing the nominal-to-real transformation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 205-225, February.
  8. Naug, Bjorn & Nymoen, Ragnar, 1996. " Pricing to Market in a Small Open Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(3), pages 329-50.
  9. Paruolo, Paolo, 1996. "On the determination of integration indices in I(2) systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 313-356.
  10. Marston, Richard C., 1990. "Pricing to market in Japanese manufacturing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 217-236, November.
  11. Susan Athey & Kyle Bagwell & Chris Sanchirico, 2004. "Collusion and Price Rigidity," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(2), pages 317-349, 04.
  12. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
  13. repec:cup:etheor:v:8:y:1992:i:2:p:188-202 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Johansen, Søren, 1992. "A Representation of Vector Autoregressive Processes Integrated of Order 2," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(02), pages 188-202, June.
  15. Paruolo, Paolo & Rahbek, Anders, 1999. "Weak exogeneity in I(2) VAR systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 281-308, December.
  16. Gregoir, Stephane & Laroque, Guy, 1994. "Polynomial cointegration estimation and test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 183-214, July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius & Roman Frydberg & Michael Goldberg, 2008. "Testing hypotheses in an I(2) model with applications to the persistent long swings in the Dmk/$ rate," CREATES Research Papers 2008-03, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  2. Fanelli, Luca & Paruolo, Paolo, 2007. "Speed of Adjustment in Cointegrated Systems," MPRA Paper 9174, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Alfred A. Haug & Syed A. Basher, 2007. "Linear or Nonlinear Cointegration in the Purchasing Power Parity Relationship?," Working Papers 0712, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2007.
  4. Katarina Juselius, 2013. "Testing for Near I (2) Trends When the Signal to Noise Ratio is Small," Discussion Papers 14-01, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  5. Francesca DI IORIO & Stefano FACHIN & Riccardo LUCCHETTI, 2013. "Can you do the wrong thing and still be right? Hypothesis Testing in I(2) and near-I(2) cointegrated VARs," Working Papers 395, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  6. Juselius, Katarina, 2014. "Testing for near I(2) trends when the signal to noise ratio is small," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-8, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  7. Giulia LISTORTI, 2008. "Price Transmission Mechanisms: a Policy Investigation of International Wheat Markets," Working Papers 318, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  8. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2012. "Purchasing Power Parity between the UK and the Euro Area," Working papers 2012-46, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  9. Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg & Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 2009. "A Resolution of the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle: Imperfect Knowledge and Long Swings," CREATES Research Papers 2009-01, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.

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