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The Exchange Rate and Purchasing Power Parity: Extending the Theory and Tests

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  • Apte, Prakesh
  • Sercu, Piet
  • Uppal, Raman

Abstract

This Paper analyses the exchange rate in a ‘no-arbitrage’ or ‘real business cycle’ equilibrium model and provides empirical evidence for this model vis-a-vis PPP. Our contribution is to show, based on a generalization of the equilibrium model of exchange rates, that (i) the test equation linking the exchange rate to fundamentals should allow for international heterogeneity in time preferences or risk attitudes, as well as noise – that is, the model should not be tested as an exact relation; (ii) empirical work should use levels of variables rather than first differences; (iii) tests on the existence of long-run relations should be complemented by tests on the signs of the coefficients; (iv) the specification of the regression should offer demonstrated advantages over alternatives, and the significance tests should not rely on asymptotic distributions; and (v) the tests should steer clear of countries that have imposed, for most of the period, capital restrictions or exchange controls, thus violating the integrated-markets assumption of the model. Our empirical work shows that, as a long-run relation, the generalized model outperforms PPP.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3343.

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Date of creation: Apr 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3343

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Keywords: general equilibrium; purchasing power parity; regression tests;

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Cited by:
  1. Marios Zachariadis, . "Productivity and Prices in Europe: Micro-Evidence for the Period 1975 to 1990," Departmental Working Papers 2004-06, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
  2. Karim M. Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, 2012. "Beyond Co-Integration: Modelling Co-Movements in Macro finance," Working Paper Series 25_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  3. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Luca Fanelli & Attilio Gardini, 2008. "International dynamic risk sharing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 1-16.
  4. Bruno Larue & Jean-Philippe Gervais & Yannick Rancourt, 2010. "Exchange rate pass-through, menu costs and threshold cointegration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 171-192, February.

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