Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?
AbstractA common finding is that the forward discount is a biased predictor of future exchange-rate changes. The authors use survey data on exchange-rate expectations to decompose the bias into portions attributable to the risk premium and expectational errors. None of the bias in their sample reflects the risk premium. They also reject the claim that the risk premium is more variable than expected depreciation. Investors would do better if they reduced fractionally the magnitude of expected depreciation. This is the same result that many authors have found with forward market data, but now it cannot be attributed to risk. Copyright 1989, the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley in its series Department of Economics, Working Paper Series with number qt5w65g4zg.
Date of creation: 06 Jun 1988
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forward exchange; exchange rate; risk premium; rational expectations; survey data; Social and Behavioral Sciences;
Other versions of this item:
- Froot, Kenneth A & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1989. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 139-61, February.
- Kenneth A. Froot and Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Economics Working Papers 8874, University of California at Berkeley.
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