A Theoretically Defensible Measure of Risk: Using Financial Market Data from a Middle Income Context
AbstractWhile economic theory assumes that risk is of central importance in financial decision making, it is difficult to measure the uncertainty faced by investors. Commonly used empirical proxies for risk (such as the moving standard deviation of the returns on an asset) are not firmly grounded in economic theory. Risk measures have been developed by other studies, but these are generally based on subjective weights attaching to a range of objective component indicators and are difficult to replicate. The contribution of this paper is to develop a methodology to construct theory-defensible empirical risk measures. It has the advantages of being explicitly consistent with economic theory and easily replicable. We illustrate this methodology by specific application to the South African context. The time-varying risk measure developed in this paper is consistent with the expectations hypothesis and captures the asymmetric nature of shocks. This measure reflects investorsâ€™ risk perceptions and accords with the literature on risk in South Africa.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economic Research Southern Africa in its series Working Papers with number 64.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Newlands on Main, F0301 3rd Floor Mariendahl House, cnr Campground and Main Rds, Claremont, 7700 Cape Town
Phone: 021 671-3980
Fax: +27 21 671 3912
Web page: http://www.econrsa.org/
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Yoemna Mosaval).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.