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Revisiting the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates

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  • Bulkley, George
  • Harris, Richard D.F.
  • Nawosah, Vivekanand

Abstract

The expectations hypothesis of the term structure has been decisively rejected in a large empirical literature that spans several decades. In this paper, using a newly constructed dataset of synthetic zero-coupon bond yields, we show that evidence against the expectations hypothesis is substantially weaker in data generated after the widespread publicity of its failure. These results are consistent with the idea that asset pricing anomalies tend to disappear once they are widely recognized.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
Issue (Month): 5 (May)
Pages: 1202-1212

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:5:p:1202-1212

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Keywords: Expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates Forward yields Yield spreads Campbell and Shiller tests Vector autoregression;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pawel Milobedzki, 2012. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of LIBOR US Dollar Interest Rates," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 12, pages 5-18.
  2. Seth Armitage & Janusz Brzeszczynski, 2010. "Forecasting UK Inflation: An Empirical Analysis ," CFI Discussion Papers 1002, Centre for Finance and Investment, Heriot Watt University.
  3. Carlo A. Favero & Arie E. Gozluklu & Haoxi Yang, 2011. "Demographics and The Behaviour of Interest Rates," Working Papers 388, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  4. Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert & Wood, Andrew, 2013. "The expectations hypothesis: New hope or illusory support?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1084-1092.

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