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Do We Reject Too Often? Small Sample Properties of Tests of Rational Expectations Models

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N. Gregory Mankiw
Matthew D. Shapiro

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Abstract

We examine the small sample properties of tests of rational expectations models. We show using Monte Carlo experiments that the asymptotic distribution of test statistics can be extremely misleading when the tine series examined are highly autoregressive. In particular, a practitioner relying on the asymptotic distribution will reject true models too frequently. We also show that this problem is especially severe with detrended data. We present correct small sample critical values for our canonical problem.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0051.

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Date of creation: Oct 1985
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0051

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  1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Flavin, Marjorie, 1984. "Time series evidence on the expectations hypothesis of the term structure," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 211-237, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1981. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 741-51, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Evans, G B A & Savin, N E, 1984. "Testing for Unit Roots: 2," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(5), pages 1241-69, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Abel, Andrew B. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1983. "An integrated view of tests of rationality, market efficiency and the short-run neutrality of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 3-24. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1984. "Pitfalls in the Use of Time as an Explanatory Variable in Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(1), pages 73-82, January.
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  10. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Evans, G B A & Savin, N E, 1981. "Testing for Unit Roots: 1," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 753-79, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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