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A Further Examination of the Expectations Hypothesis for the Term Structure

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Author Info
Erdenebat Bataa
Dong H. Kim
Denise R. Osborn

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Paper provided by Economics, The University of Manchester in its series The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series with number 0611.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:man:sespap:0611

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  1. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian & Marc Nerlove, 2006. "Time Series Analysis," PIER Working Paper Archive 06-019, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    • Diebold, F.X. & Kilian, L. & Nerlove, M., 2006. "Time Series Analysis," Working Papers 28556, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Godfrey, Leslie G. & Orme, Chris D., 2004. "Controlling the finite sample significance levels of heteroskedasticity-robust tests of several linear restrictions on regression coefficients," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 281-287, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Horowitz, Joel L., 2001. "The Bootstrap," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 52, pages 3159-3228 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. William Roberds & Charles H. Whiteman, 1996. "Endogenous term premia and anomalies in the term structure of interest rates: explaining the predictability smile," Working Paper 96-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Sargent, Thomas J., 1979. "A note on maximum likelihood estimation of the rational expectations model of the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 133-143, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Gregory Mankiw, N. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1986. "Do we reject too often? : Small sample properties of tests of rational expectations models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 139-145. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Bertola, Giuseppe & Foresi, Silverio, 1997. "A model of target changes and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 223-249, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Dagenais, M.G. & Dufour, J.M., 1987. "Invariance, Nonlinear Models and Asymptotic Tests," Cahiers de recherche 8738, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  11. Froot, Kenneth A, 1989. " New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 283-305, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-86. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Davidson, R. & Flachaire, E., 1999. "The Wild Bootstrap, Tamed at Last," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 99a32, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
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  14. Richardson, Matthew & Stock, James H., 1989. "Drawing inferences from statistics based on multiyear asset returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 323-348, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Expectations Hypotheses Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1357-1394, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1985. "Heteroskedasticity-Robust Tests in Regression Directions," Working Papers 616, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  18. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 667, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Belsley, David A., 2002. "An investigation of an unbiased correction for heteroskedasticity and the effects of misspecifying the skedastic function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1379-1396, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 5031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Longstaff, Francis A., 2000. "The term structure of very short-term rates: New evidence for the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 397-415, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Thornton, Daniel L., 2006. "Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Campbell-Shiller Paradox," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 511-542, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1997. "The term structure of Euro-rates: some evidence in support of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 305-321, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Roberds, William & Runkle, David & Whiteman, Charles H, 1996. "A Daily View of Yield Spreads and Short-Term Interest Rate Movements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 34-53, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Godfrey, L.G. & Tremayne, A.R., 2005. "The wild bootstrap and heteroskedasticity-robust tests for serial correlation in dynamic regression models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 377-395, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Shea, Gary S, 1992. "Benchmarking the Expectations Hypothesis of the Interest-Rate Term Structure: An Analysis of Cointegration Vectors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 347-66, July.
  30. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  31. Schwert, G William, 1989. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 147-59, April.
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  32. Baci, Sidika & Zaman, Asad, 1998. "Effects of skewness and kurtosis on model selection criteria," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 17-22, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Goncalves, Silvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 89-120, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  34. Kyriazidou, Ekaterini, 1998. "Testing for serial correlation in multivariate regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 193-220, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  35. Gregory, Allan W & Veall, Michael R, 1985. "Formulating Wald Tests of Nonlinear Restrictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1465-68, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  36. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-26, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  37. Taylor, Mark P, 1992. "Modelling the Yield Curve," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(412), pages 524-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  38. Markku Lanne, 1999. "Near Unit Roots And The Predictive Power Of Yield Spreads For Changes In Long-Term Interest Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 393-398, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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