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Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Campbell-Shiller Paradox

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Thornton, Daniel L.

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Abstract

One of the more puzzling results in the expectations hypothesis (EH) testing literature is the Campbell-Shiller paradox (CSP). In an influential paper, Campbell and Shiller (1991) found that "the slope of the term structure almost always gives a forecast in the wrong direction for the short-term change in the yield on the longer bond, but gives a forecast in the right direction for long-term changes in short rates." This paper provides an econometric resolution to the CSP. Specifically, it shows that, by their construction, these tests can generate results consistent with the CSP if the EH does not hold-whatever the reason. Monte Carlo experiments confirm that this explanation can account for Campbell and Shiller's paradoxical results for most pairings of short-term and long-term rates considered.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/mcb.2006.0036
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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 38 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 511-542
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:38:y:2006:i:2:p:511-542

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Silva Lopes, Artur C. & Monteiro, Olga Susana, 2007. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: Some Empirical Evidence for Portugal," MPRA Paper 6310, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Dec 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Erdenebat Bataa & Dong H. Kim & Denise R. Osborn, 2006. "A Further Examination of the Expectations Hypothesis for the Term Structure," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0611, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov & Clemens Kool, 2006. "The Importance of Interest Rate Volatility in Empirical Tests of Uncovered Interest Parity," Working Papers 06-16, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Matteo Modena, 2008. "The Term Structure and the Expectations Hypothesis: a Threshold Model," Working Papers 2008_36, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2009. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us About Exchange Rate Predictability?," Working Papers UWEC-2009-04, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Daniel L. Thornton, 2003. "Testing the expectations hypothesis: some new evidence for Japan," Working Papers 2003-033, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "Yield curve, time varying term premia, and business cycle fluctuations," MPRA Paper 8873, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  8. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L, 2007. "The Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Very Short-Term Rates: Statistical Tests and Economic Value," CEPR Discussion Papers 6445, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Silva Lopes, Artur C. B. da & Monteiro, Olga Susana, 2008. "Short and long run tests of the expectations hypothesis: the Portuguese case," MPRA Paper 12001, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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