Stock Returns and Dividend Yields Revisited: A New Way to Look at an Old Problem
AbstractThe problem of whether stock returns can he predicted from dividend yields is discussed. I apply a new statistical method for finding reliable confidence intervals for regression parameters in the context of dependent and possibly heteroscedastic data, called subsampling. The method works under very weak conditions and avoids the pitfalls of having to choose a structural model to fit to observed data. Appropriate simulation studies suggest that it has better small-sample properties than the generalized method of moments, which is also model free and works under weak conditions. Applying the subsampling method to three datasets, I do not find convincing evidence for the predictability of stock returns.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.
Volume (Year): 18 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.amstat.org/publications/jbes/index.cfm?fuseaction=main
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Ivan Paya & D Peel, 2005.
"A new analysis of the determinants of the real dollar-sterling exchange rate: 1871-1994,"
565953, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
- Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2005. "A New Analysis Of The Determinants Of The Real Dollar-Sterling Exchange Rate: 1871-1994," Working Papers. Serie AD 2005-16, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- David G. McMillan, 2010. "Level-shifts and non-linearity in US financial ratios: Implications for returns predictability and the present value model," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 9(2), pages 189-207, May.
- Cheolbeom Park, 2006. "The Persistence and Predictive Power of the Dividend-Price Ratio," Departmental Working Papers wp0603, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
- GONÇALVES, Silvia & KILIAN, Lutz, 2003.
"Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form,"
Cahiers de recherche
2003-01, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Goncalves, Silvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 89-120, November.
- Gonçalves, Sílvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Working Paper Series 0196, European Central Bank.
- Gonçalves, Sílvia & KILIAN, Lutz, 2003. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Cahiers de recherche 01-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Kilian, Lutz & Gonçalves, Sílvia, 2002. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Sílvia Gonçalves & Lutz Kilian, 2003. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-17, CIRANO.
- McMillan, David G., 2009. "Revisiting dividend yield dynamics and returns predictability: Evidence from a time-varying ESTR model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 870-883, August.
- David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2006. "Non-linear long horizon returns predictability: evidence from six south-east Asian markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 95-111, June.
- Deniz Baglan & Emre Yoldas, 2013. "Government debt and macroeconomic activity: a predictive analysis for advanced economies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-05, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Erdenebat Bataa & Dong H. Kim & Denise R. Osborn, 2007. "Expectations Hypothesis Tests in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Discussion Paper Series 0703, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
- Katsumi Shimotsu & Alex Maynard, 2004.
"Covariance-based orthogonality tests for regressors with unknown persistence,"
Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings
536, Econometric Society.
- Maynard, Alex & Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2009. "Covariance-Based Orthogonality Tests For Regressors With Unknown Persistence," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(01), pages 63-116, February.
- Alex Maynard & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2007. "Covariance-based orthogonality tests for regressors with unknown persistence," Working Papers 1122, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Katsumi Shimotsu & Alex Maynard, 2004. "Covariance-based orthogonality tests for regressors with unknown persistence," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 518, Econometric Society.
- Park, Cheolbeom, 2010. "When does the dividend-price ratio predict stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 81-101, January.
- David G. McMillan & Mark E. Wohar, 2010. "Stock return predictability and dividend-price ratio: a nonlinear approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 351-365.
- Michael Scholz & Jens Perch Nielsen & Stefan Sperlich, 2012. "Nonparametric prediction of stock returns guided by prior knowledge," Graz Economics Papers 2012-02, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
- Safari, Meysam & TahmooresPour, Reza, 2011. "Moderation Effect of Market Condition on the Relationship between Dividend Yield and Stock Return," MPRA Paper 28913, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.