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The term structure of commercial paper rates

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  • Chris Downing
  • Stephen Oliner

Abstract

This paper tests the expectations hypothesis in the market for commercial paper. Our main dataset, which is new to the literature, consists of daily indexes constructed from the actual market yields for nearly all commercial paper issued by U.S. corporations between January 1998 and August 2003. We show that the term premia built into commercial paper yields rise dramatically at year-end, causing the expectations hypothesis to be rejected. However, once we control for these predictable year-end effects, we find the reverse--that commercial paper yields largely conform with the expectations hypothesis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2004-18.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2004-18

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Keywords: Commercial paper issues;

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References

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  1. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:5:p:1131-47 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "The Term Structure of Euro-Rates: Some Evidence in Support of the Expectations Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1258, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  4. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 2001. "Peso problem explanations for term structure anomalies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 241-270, October.
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  25. Mark D. Griffiths & Drew B. Winters, 2005. "The Turn of the Year in Money Markets: Tests of the Risk-Shifting Window Dressing and Preferred Habitat Hypotheses," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(4), pages 1337-1364, July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Refet S. G├╝rkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2006. "Market-based measures of monetary policy expectations," Working Paper Series 2006-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Kotomin, Vladimir, 2011. "A test of the expectations hypothesis in very short-term international rates in the presence of preferred habitat for liquidity," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 49-55, February.
  3. Brown, Craig R. & Cyree, Ken B. & Griffiths, Mark D. & Winters, Drew B., 2008. "Further analysis of the expectations hypothesis using very short-term rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 600-613, April.
  4. Daniel M. Covitz & Nellie Liang & Gustavo A. Suarez, 2009. "The evolution of a financial crisis: panic in the asset-backed commercial paper market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2010. "Direct tests of the expectations theory of the term structure: Survey expectations, the term premium and coefficient biases," MPRA Paper 19815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Covitz, Daniel & Liang, Nellie & Suarez, Gustavo, 2009. "The anatomy of a financial crisis: the evolution of panic-driven runs in the asset-backed commercial paper market," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan, pages 1-36.
  7. Kopchak, Seth J., 2013. "The realized forward term premium in the repo market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 253-278.
  8. Griffiths, Mark D. & Kotomin, Vladimir & Winters, Drew B., 2009. "Year-end and quarter-end effects in the term structure of sterling repo and Eurepo rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 803-817, December.

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