Challenges For Econometric Model Selection
AbstractStandard econometric model selection methods are based on four conceptual errors: parametric vision, the assumption of a true data generating process, evaluation based on fit, and ignoring the impact of model uncertainty on inference. Instead, econometric model selection methods should be based on a semiparametric vision, models should be viewed as approximations, models should be evaluated based on their purpose, and model uncertainty should be incorporated into inference methods. These problems have been examined individually but not jointly, and my view is that future research into econometric model selection should attempt to address all four issues.This research was supported by the National Science Foundation. I thank Peter Phillips and a referee for helpful comments that greatly improved the arguments and exposition.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Econometric Theory.
Volume (Year): 21 (2005)
Issue (Month): 01 (February)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: The Edinburgh Building, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 2RU UK
Fax: +44 (0)1223 325150
Web page: http://journals.cambridge.org/jid_ECTProvider-Email:email@example.com
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Leeb, Hannes & P tscher, Benedikt M., 2008.
"Can One Estimate The Unconditional Distribution Of Post-Model-Selection Estimators?,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(02), pages 338-376, April.
- Hannes Leeb & Benedikt M. Potscher, 2003. "Can One Estimate the Conditional Distribution of Post-Model-Selection Estimators?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1444, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Leeb, Hannes & Pötscher, Benedikt M., 2005. "Can One Estimate the Unconditional Distribution of Post-Model-Selection Estimators ?," MPRA Paper 72, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hong, Han & Preston, Bruce & Shum, Matthew, 2003. "Generalized Empirical Likelihood Based Model Selection Criteria For Moment Condition Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(06), pages 923-943, December.
- repec:ner:leuven:urn:hdl:123456789/121067 is not listed on IDEAS
- Yongfu Huang, 2005. "What determines financial development?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 05/580, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
- Ulaşan, Bülent, 2012. "Cross-country growth empirics and model uncertainty: An overview," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 6(16), pages 1-69.
- Choi, Hwan-sik & Kiefer, Nicholas M., 2006. "Robust Model Selection in Dynamic Models with an Application to Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Working Papers 06-09, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
- Heij, C. & Groenen, P.J.F. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2006. "Time series forecasting by principal covariate regression," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2006-37, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Alexandre Belloni & Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen, 2011. "Inference for high-dimensional sparse econometric models," CeMMAP working papers CWP41/11, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Brownlees, Christian T. & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2011.
"Shrinkage estimation of semiparametric multiplicative error models,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 365-378.
- Brownlees, Christian T. & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2011. "Shrinkage estimation of semiparametric multiplicative error models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 365-378, April.
- Adam McCloskey, 2012. "Bonferroni-Based Size-Correction for Nonstandard Testing Problems," Working Papers 2012-16, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Faust, Jon & Gupta, Abhishek, 2010.
"Posterior Predictive Analysis for Evaluating DSGE Models,"
26721, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jon Faust & Abhishek Gupta, 2012. "Posterior Predictive Analysis for Evaluating DSGE Models," NBER Working Papers 17906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Erdenebat Bataa & Dong H. Kim & Denise R. Osborn, 2007. "Expectations Hypothesis Tests in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Discussion Paper Series 0703, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
- Erdenebat Bataa & Dong H. Kim & Denise R. Osborn, 2006.
"A Further Examination of the Expectations Hypothesis for the Term Structure,"
The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series
0611, Economics, The University of Manchester.
- E Bataa & D R Osborn & D H Kim, 2006. "A Further Examination of the Expectations Hypothesis for the Term Structure," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 72, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
- Pitarakis, J., 2004.
"Model selection uncertainty and detection of threshold effects,"
Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics
0409, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
- Pitarakis Jean-Yves, 2006. "Model Selection Uncertainty and Detection of Threshold Effects," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-30, March.
- Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2004. "Model Selection Uncertainty and Detection of Threshold Effecs," Econometrics 0409013, EconWPA.
- Gupta, Abhishek, 2010. "A Forecasting Metric for Evaluating DSGE Models for Policy Analysis," MPRA Paper 26718, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ulaşan, Bülent, 2011. "Cross-country growth empirics and model uncertainty: An overview," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-37, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Jon Faust, 2012. "DSGE Models: I Smell a Rat (and It Smells Good)," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(1), pages 53-64, March.
- David Bywaters & Gareth Thomas, 2008. "Output Expectations and Forecasting of UK Manufacturing," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 36(2), pages 125-137, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Keith Waters).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.