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Endogenous term premia and anomalies in the term structure of interest rates: explaining the predictability smile

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Author Info
William Roberds
Charles H. Whiteman

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Abstract

Recent studies have documented the existence of a "predictability smile" in the term structure of interest rates: spreads between long maturity rates and short rates predict subsequent movements in interest rates provided the long horizon is three months or less or if the long horizon is two years or more, but not for intermediate maturities. Accounts for portions of the smile involve interest rate smoothing by the Fed, time-varying risk premia, "Peso problems," and measurement error. We take a more nearly general equilibrium approach to explaining this phenomenon and show that despite its highly restrictive nature, the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (1985) model of the term structure can account for the predictability smile.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 96-11.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Monetary Economics, December 1999
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:96-11

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Keywords: Financial markets Interest rates

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  1. Iichiro Uesugi & Guy M. Yamashiro, 2003. "On the Relationship Between the Very Short Forward and the Spot Interest Rate," Discussion papers 03013, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
  2. Ravi Bansal & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2003. "Regime-shifts, risk premiums in the term structure, and the business cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  3. David Backus & Silverio Foresi & Abon Mozumdar & Liuren Wu, 1998. "Predictable Changes in Yields and Forward Rates," NBER Working Papers 6379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2004. "Variance Risk Premia," Finance 0409015, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2001. "Expectation Puzzles, Time-varying Risk Premia, and Dynamic Models of the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 8167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Carriero, Andrea & Favero, Carlo A & Kaminska, Iryna, 2004. "Financial Factors, Macroeconomic Information and the Expectations Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4301, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Markus Leippold & Liuren Wu, 2002. "Design and Estimation of Quadratic Term Structure Models," Finance 0207014, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Daniel L. Thornton, 2004. "Tests of the expectations hypothesis: resolving the Campbell-Shiller paradox," Working Papers 2003-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  9. Peter Hoerdahl & Oreste Tristani, 2004. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 379, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Daniel L. Thornton, 2005. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Papers 2004-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  11. Hibiki Ichiue, 2004. "Why Can the Yield Curve Predict Output Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rates? An Analysis with Affine Term Structure Model," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 581, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  12. Martin Evans, 1998. "Looking Behind the U. K.Term Structure: Were there Peso Problems in Inflation?," Finance 9809001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  13. D H Kim, 2002. "Another look at yield spreads: The role of liquidity," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 04, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  14. Jääskelä, Jarkko & Vilmunen, Jouko, 1999. "Anticipated Monetary Policy and the Dynamic Behaviour of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Research Discussion Papers 12/1999, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  15. Gianna Boero & Costanza Torricelli, 2002. "The information in the term structure of German interest rates," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 21-45, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2005. "The empirical failure of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of bond yields," Working Papers 2003-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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