Affine Models of Currency Pricing
AbstractPerhaps the most puzzling feature of currency prices is the tendency for high interest rate currencies to appreciate, when the expectations hypothesis suggests the reverse. Some have attributed this forward premium anomaly to a time-varying risk premium, but theory has been largely unsuccessful in producing a risk premium with the requisite properties. We characterize the risk premium in a general arbitrage-free setting and describe the features a theory must have to account for the anomaly. In affine models, the anomaly requires either that state variables have asymmetric effects on state prices in different currencies or that we abandon the common requirement that interest rates be strictly positive.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business- in its series New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires with number 96-9.
Date of creation: Apr 1996
Date of revision:
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Phone: (212) 998-0100
Web page: http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/finance/
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Other versions of this item:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
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