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The information in the term structure of German interest rates

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  • Gianna Boero
  • Costanza Torricelli

Abstract

This paper tests the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of interest rates using new data for Germany. The German term structure appears to forecast future short-term interest rates surprisingly well, compared with previous studies with US data, while it has lower predictive power for long-term interest rates. However, the direction suggested by the coefficient estimates is consistent with that implied by the EH, that is when the term spread widens, long rates increase. The use of instrumental variables to deal with possible measurement errors in the data significantly improves regressions for the long rates. Moreover, re-estimation with proxy variables to account for the possibility of time-varying term premia confirms that the evolution of both short and long rates corresponds to the predictions of the EH and that most of the information is in the term spread. These results are important as they suggest that monetary policy in Germany could be guided by the slope of the term structure.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 8 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 21-45

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Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:8:y:2002:i:1:p:21-45

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Related research

Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; Interest Rate; Term Structure; Term Premia; Forward Rates; Measurement Errors; Volatility;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Luisa Malaguti & Costanza Torricelli, 2001. "The rational expectation dynamics of a model for the term structure and monetary policy," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 137-152, November.
  2. Magdalena Massot Perelló & Juan M. Nave Pineda, 2003. "La hipótesis de las expectativas en el largo plazo: evidencia en el mercado español de deuda pública," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 27(3), pages 533-564, September.
  3. Costanza Torricelli & Marianna Brunetti, 2006. "Economic activity and Recession Probabilities: spread predictive power in Italy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 350, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. Boero, G. & Torricelli, C., 1998. "Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis and Policy Reaction to the Term Spread: Some Comparative Evidence," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 512, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

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