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The Information Content of the Term Structure: Evidence for Germany

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Gerlach, Stefan

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Abstract

This paper studies the usefulness of spreads between interest rates of different maturities as indicators of future inflation and real interest rates in Germany, using monthly data from the first quarter of 1967. The central results are two-fold. First, the interest rate spreads considered contain considerable information about future changes in inflation, but no information about the time path of real interest rates. Second, the medium-term segment of the yield curve (spreads between six- and two-year rates, for instance) appears to be the most informative for future inflation. These results are similar to those obtained by Mishkin (1990b) and Jorion and Mishkin (1991).

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1264.

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Date of creation: Nov 1995
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1264

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation Expectations Information Content Term Structure

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1983. "Excess Volatility in the Financial Markets: A Reassessment of the Empirical Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(6), pages 929-56, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Soderlind, P., 1995. "Forward Interest Rates as Indicators of Inflation Expectations," Papers 594, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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  3. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1986. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates Revisited," NBER Reprints 0777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  4. Jorion, Philippe & Mishkin, Frederic, 1991. "A multicountry comparison of term-structure forecasts at long horizons," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 59-80, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1990. "What Does the Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 2626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Shiller, Robert J., 1981. "Alternative tests of rational expectations models : The case of the term structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 71-87, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "The information in the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 509-528, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 667, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jorge Barros Luís & Nuno Cassola, 2001. "A two-factor model of the German term structure of interest rates," Working Paper Series 46, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jim Day & Ron Lange, 1997. "The Structure of Interest Rates in Canada: Information Content about Medium-Term Inflation," Working Papers 97-10, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gianna Boero & Costanza Torricelli, 1999. "The Information in the Term of Structure: further Results for Germany," Working Paper CRENoS 199912, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Gianna Boero & Costanza Torricelli, 1997. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure: Evidence for Germany," Working Paper CRENoS 1997/4, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
  5. Harald Grech, 2004. "What Do German Short-Term Interest Rates Tell Us About Future Inflation?," Working Papers 94, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  6. James D. Hamilton & Dong Heon Kim, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," NBER Working Papers 7954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Kursat Kunter & Norbert Janssen, 2002. "Credibility Of Monetary Regimes : Is Inflation Targeting Different?," Discussion Papers 0201, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
  9. Nuno Cassola & Jorge Barros Luís, 2003. "A two-factor model of the German term structure of interest rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 783-806, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2000. "How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve? evidence from Germany and the United States," Staff Reports 113, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Gerlach, Stefan, 2002. "Interpreting the Term Structure of Interbank Rates in Hong Kong," CEPR Discussion Papers 3187, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Gianna Boero & Costanza Torricelli, 2002. "The information in the term structure of German interest rates," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 21-45, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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