Forward interest rates have become popular indicators of inflation expectations. The usefulness of this indicator depends on the relative volatilty and the correlation of inflation expectations and expected real interest rates. This paper studies U.S. and U.K. data, using a range of different tools and data sets. The forward rate rule perfoms reasonably well, in spite of significant movements in the expected real interest rate. The reason is that the 'noise' that movements in the expected real interest rate add to the inflation expectations is balanced by a tendency for expected real interest rates and inflation expectations to move in opposite directions.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Publisher Info
Paper provided by Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies in its series Seminar Papers with number
594.
Length: 28 pages Date of creation: 31 Oct 1997 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:hhs:iiessp:0594
Contact details of provider: Postal: Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden Phone: +46-8-162000 Fax: +46-8-161443 Web page: http://www.iies.su.se/ More information through EDIRC
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Jinfeng Ge) or (Ettore Panetti) or (David Seim).
Find related papers by JEL classification: E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Cited by: (explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)