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Imperfect Rationality and Inflationary Inertia: A New Estimation of the Phillips Curve for Brazil

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  • Marcelo Savino Portugal
  • Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo

Abstract

This paper presents some new estimates for the relationship between inflation and unemployment in Brazil based on a new Keynesian hypothesis about the behavior of the economy. Four main hypotheses are tested and sustained throughout the study: i) agents do not have perfect rationality; ii) the imperfection in the agents expectations generating process may be an important factor in explaining the high persistence (inertia) of Brazilian inflation; iii) inflation does have an autonomous inertial component, without linkage to shocks in individual markets; iv) a non-linear relationship between inflation and unemployment is able to provide better explanations for the inflation-unemployment relationship in the Brazilian economy in the last 12 years. While the first two hypotheses are tested using a Markov Switching based model of regime changes, the remaining two are tested in a context of a convex Phillips Curve estimated using the Kalman filter. Despite the methodological and estimation improvements provided in the paper, the impulse-response functions for the monetary policy presented the same properties shown in the literature that uses Brazilian data

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings with number 5.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:5

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Keywords: Phillips Curve; Expectations; Inflation; NAIRU-gap; Markov Switching Models; Kalman Filter; SUR;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Adolfo Sachsida & Marcio Ribeiro & Claudio Hamilton dos Santos, 2009. "A Curva de Phillips e a Experiência Brasileira," Discussion Papers 1429, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  2. Alexis Maka & Fernando De Holanda Barbosa, 2014. "Phillips Curves: An Encompassing Test," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 061, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  3. Leandro Nascimento Brito & Elcyon Caiado Rocha Lima, 2008. "Inflação e Nível de Atividade no Brasil: Estimativas via Curva de Phillips," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211039560, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

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