Forward Interest Rates as Indicators of Inflation Expectations
AbstractForward interest rates have become popular indicators of inflation expectations. The usefulness of this indicator depends on the relative volatility and the correlation of inflation expectations and expected real interest rates. This paper studies US and UK data, using a range of different tools and data sets. The forward rate rule performs reasonably well, in spite of significant movements in the expected real interest rate. The reason is that the 'noise' that movements in the expected real interest rate add to the inflation expectations is balanced by a tendency for expected real interest rates and inflation expectations to move in opposite directions.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1313.
Date of creation: Dec 1995
Date of revision:
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Other versions of this item:
- Soderlind, P., 1995. "Forward Interest Rates as Indicators of Inflation Expectations," Papers 594, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Söderlind, Paul, 1997. "Forward Interest Rates as Indicators of Inflation Expectations," Seminar Papers 594, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
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