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The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy

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Author Info
Gerberding, Christina
Abstract

The present paper uses survey data on expected consumer price developments to analyse the role of inflation expectations in the inflation process. The survey measures of price expectations are derived from the European Commission?s Consumer Survey and from the surveys of professional experts conducted by the London-based institute Consensus Economics. The estimates of the New Keynesian inflation model presented here underscore the importance of inflation expectations for the short to medium-run development of consumer prices in Germany, France and Italy. Furthermore, the analysis of the process of expectations formation indicates that the expectations of the households and experts surveyed are strongly guided by earlier forecasts and past price developments. The resultant ?stickiness? of the inflation process heightens the need for monetary policy makers to adopt a forwardlooking approach. -- Die vorliegende Arbeit verwendet Umfragedaten zur erwarteten Preisentwicklung, um die Rolle der Inflationserwartungen im Inflationsprozess zu analysieren. Dabei konzentriert sich die Analyse auf die im Rahmen der EU-Verbraucherumfrage ermittelten Daten und die von Consensus Economics erhobenen Expertenprognosen für Deutschland, Frankreich und Italien. Die präsentierten Schätzungen des neukeynesianischen Inflationsmodells unterstreichen die Bedeutung der Inflationserwartungen für die kurz- bis mittelfristige Entwicklung der Konsumentenpreise. Ferner deutet die Analyse des Erwartungsbildungsprozesses darauf hin, dass sich die befragten Haushalte und Experten bei der Erwartungsbildung stark von früheren Prognosen und von der vergangenen Preisentwicklung leiten lassen. Die daraus resultierende Persistenz inflationärer Prozesse verstärkt die Notwendigkeit eines vorausschauenden Verhaltens der geldpolitischen Entscheidungsträger.

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Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2001,09.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4155

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Related research
Keywords: inflation expectations; survey data; Phillips curve;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jan Marc Berk & Gerbert Hebbink, 2006. "The anchoring of European inflation expectations," DNB Working Papers 116, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jonas Dovern & Joerg Doepke & Ulrich Fritsche & Jirka Slacalek, 2006. "The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200603, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Ivo J. M. Arnold & Jan J.G. Lemmen, 2006. "Inflation Expectations and Inflation Uncertainty in the Eurozone: Evidence from Survey Data," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Rautureau, Nicolas, 2004. "Measuring the long-term perception of monetary policy and the term structure," Research Discussion Papers 12/2004, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  5. Slacalek, Jirka & Fritsche, Ulrich & Dovern, Jonas & Döpke, Jörg, 2005. "European inflation expectations dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,37, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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