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On Testing for Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Forecasts

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Author Info
Holden, K
Peel, D A

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Abstract

This note demonstrates that the conventional test for unbiasedness of forecasts or expectations of estimating Y = "alpha"(subscript "1") + "beta"(subscript "1")F + u where Y is the outcome and F is the forecast, and testing whether "alpha"(subscript "1" = 0 and "beta"(subscript "1") = 1 is a sufficient, but not a necessary, condition for unbiasedness. A necessary and sufficient condition for unbiasedness, based on the conventional test, is presented. Copyright 1990 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies.

Volume (Year): 58 (1990)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 120-27
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Handle: RePEc:bla:manch2:v:58:y:1990:i:2:p:120-27

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