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Exchange rates, monetary policy regimes, and beliefs

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  • Keith Sill
  • Jeff Wrase

Abstract

The authors investigate an international monetary business-cycle model in which agents face monetary policy processes that incorporate regime shifts. In any given period agents cannot directly observe the policy regime, but instead form beliefs that are updated via Bayesian learning. As a result, expectation adjustment displays inertia that adds persistence to the effects of monetary shocks. Monetary policy process for the U.S. and an aggregate of OECD countries are estimated using Hamilton's Markov-switching model. The authors then solve and calibrate a version of the model and examine its quantitative properties.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 99-6.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:99-6

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Keywords: Foreign exchange rates ; Monetary policy;

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References

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  1. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1993. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Schlagenhauf, Don E. & Wrase, Jeffrey M., 1995. "Exchange rate dynamics and international effects of monetary shocks in monetary, equilibrium models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 155-177, April.
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1990. "Computational algorithms for solving variants of Fuerst's model," Working Papers 467, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 2003. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-30, February.
  5. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," NBER Working Papers 4693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Schlagenhauf, Don E. & Wrase, Jeffrey M., 1995. "Liquidity and real activity in a simple open economy model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 431-461, June.
  7. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February.
  8. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  9. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1996. "Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?," NBER Working Papers 5809, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Scholarly Articles 12491026, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ryo Horii & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2004. "Learning, Liquidity Preference, and Business Cycle," ISER Discussion Paper 0601, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  2. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  3. Ryo Horii & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2005. "Financial Crisis and Recovery: Learning-based Liquidity Preference Fluctuations," Macroeconomics 0504016, EconWPA.
  4. Ryo Horii & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2006. "Learning, Inflation Cycles, and Depression," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 06-14, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
  5. Keith Sill & Jeffrey Wrase, 1999. "Solving and simulating a simple open-economy model with Markov-switching driving processes and rational learning," Working Papers 99-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

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