Survey Evidence on the Muthian Rationality of the Inflation Forecasts of U.S. Consumers
AbstractSince January 1978, the University of Michigan Survey Research Center has been collecting the monthly year-ahead inflation forecasts of U.S. consumers. Following the implications of Muthian rational expectations, the author uses L. P. Hansen and R. J. Hodrick's procedure to examine whether these data are unbiased, and whether they outperform comparable nonsurvey augmented-adaptive and naive forecasts in terms of predictive information content. It is concluded that the survey data (unlike the nonsurvey forecasts) are biased. However, they contain more predictive information than that included in the naive forecasts but lack the predictive information contained in the forecasts generated from the augmented-adaptive Phillips curve type model. Copyright 1992 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics.
Volume (Year): 54 (1992)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Manor Rd. Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0305-9049
More information through EDIRC
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994.
"A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992)
[The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided to," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
- Roberts, John M., 1997.
"Is inflation sticky?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier,
Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July.
- John M. Roberts, 1994. "Is inflation sticky?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 152, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Grant, Alan P. & Thomas, Lloyd B., 2001. "Supply shocks and the rationality of inflation forecasts," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 515-532.
- Campbell III, Carl M., 2008. "An efficiency wage approach to reconciling the wage curve and the Phillips curve," Labour Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1388-1415, December.
- Wilbert van der Klaauw & Wandi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Basit Zafar & Olivier Armantier, 2012.
"Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on their Beliefs?,"
2012 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
121, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2011. "Inflation expectations and behavior: Do survey respondents act on their beliefs?," Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 509, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Hasan Bakhshi & Anthony Yates, 1998. "Are UK inflation expectations rational?," Bank of England working papers, Bank of England 81, Bank of England.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.