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Understanding the recent behavior of U.S. inflation

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Author Info
Robert W. Rich
Donald Rissmiller

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Abstract

One of the most surprising features of the long current expansion has been the decline in price inflation through the late 1990s. Some observers interpret the decline as evidence of a permanent change in the relationship between inflation and economic growth. But an analysis based on a standard forecasting model suggests that conventional economic factors_most notably, a decrease in import prices_can account for the low inflation rates in recent years.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its journal Current Issues in Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): (2000)
Issue (Month): Jul ()
Pages:
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednci:y:2000:i:jul:n:v.6no.8

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Imports;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Chan G. Huh & Bharat Trehan, 1995. "Modeling the time-series behavior of the aggregate wage rate," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-13. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kenneth M. Emery & Chih-Ping Chang, 1996. "Do wages help predict inflation?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q I, pages 2-9. [Downloadable!]
  3. Cara S. Lown & Robert W. Rich, 1997. "Is there an inflation puzzle?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 51-77. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Robert J. Gordon, 1982. "Inflation, Flexible Exchange Rates, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 0708, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Thomas Klitgaard, 1999. "Exchange rates and profit margins: the case of Japanese exporters," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 41-54. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Robert W. Rich & Donald Rissmiller, 2001. "Structural change in U.S. wage determination," Staff Reports 117, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  2. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jonathan McCarthy, 2000. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized economies," Staff Reports 111, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Giovanni P. Olivei, 2002. "Exchange rates and the prices of manufacturing products imported into the United States," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Q 1, pages 3 - 18. [Downloadable!]
  5. Franz, Wolfgang, 2000. "Neues von der NAIRU?," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-41, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mark Setterfield & Kristen Leblond, 2003. "The phillips curve and US macroeconomic performance during the 1990s," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 361-376, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ernst Glatzer & Ernest Gnan & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2006. "Globalization, Import Prices and Producer Prices in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 24-43, November . [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-10-30.

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