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Understanding the recent behavior of U.S. inflation

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  • Robert W. Rich
  • Donald Rissmiller

Abstract

One of the most surprising features of the long current expansion has been the decline in price inflation through the late 1990s. Some observers interpret the decline as evidence of a permanent change in the relationship between inflation and economic growth. But an analysis based on a standard forecasting model suggests that conventional economic factors_most notably, a decrease in import prices_can account for the low inflation rates in recent years.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its journal Current Issues in Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 6 (2000)
Issue (Month): Jul ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednci:y:2000:i:jul:n:v.6no.8

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Related research

Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Imports;

References

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  1. Chan Guk Huh & Bharat Trehan, 1992. "Modelling the time series behavior of the aggregate wage rate," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 92-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Kenneth M. Emery & Chih-Ping Chang, 1996. "Do wages help predict inflation?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q I, pages 2-9.
  3. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1996. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 5862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Cara S. Lown & Robert W. Rich, 1997. "Is there an inflation puzzle?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 51-77.
  5. Thomas Klitgaard, 1999. "Exchange rates and profit margins: the case of Japanese exporters," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 41-54.
  6. Robert J. Gordon, 1982. "Inflation, Flexible Exchange Rates, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 0708, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. J. McCarthy, 1999. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialised economies," BIS Working Papers 79, Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Rebecca L Driver & Jennifer V Greenslade & Richard G Pierse, 2003. "The role of expectations in estimates of the NAIRU in the United States and the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 180, Bank of England.
  3. Franz, Wolfgang, 2000. "Neues von der NAIRU?," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-41, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  4. Giovanni P. Olivei, 2002. "Exchange rates and the prices of manufacturing products imported into the United States," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Q 1, pages 3 - 18.
  5. Mark Setterfield & Kristen Leblond, 2003. "The phillips curve and US macroeconomic performance during the 1990s," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 361-376.
  6. William R White, 2000. "Discussion of 'What Went Right in the 1990s? Sources of American and Prospects for World Economic Growth'," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: David Gruen & Sona Shrestha (ed.), The Australian Economy in the 1990s Reserve Bank of Australia.
  7. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  8. Ernst Glatzer & Ernest Gnan & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2006. "Globalization, Import Prices and Producer Prices in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 24–43.
  9. Robert W. Rich & Donald Rissmiller, 2001. "Structural change in U.S. wage determination," Staff Reports 117, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. Scherrer, Christoph, 2001. "New economy: explosive growth driven by a productivity revolution?," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Regulation of Work FS II 01-204, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).

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