The (Un)Importance of Forward-Looking Behavior in Price Specifications
AbstractThe seminal work of Edmund S. Phelps (1978), John B. Taylor (1980), and Guillermo A. Calvo (1983) developed forward-looking models of price determination that imparted inertia to the price level. These models incorporate expectations of future prices and excess demand by imposing constraints (typically lag-lead symmetry constraints) that force future variables to enter the specification. In this paper, the author tests the empirical significance of future prices in specifications like those of Taylor. He finds that expectations of future prices are empirically unimportant in explaining price and inflation behavior. However, the dynamics of a model that includes a purely backward-looking inflation specification differ substantially--and not altogether pleasingly--from those with a forward-looking specification. Copyright 1997 by Ohio State University Press.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
Volume (Year): 29 (1997)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879
Other versions of this item:
- Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The [un]importance of forward-looking behavior in price specifications," Working Papers 95-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Laurence Ball, 1993.
"What determines the sacrifice ratio?,"
93-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1989.
"Monetary policy rules and the indicator properties of asset prices,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
89, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1992. "Monetary policy rules and the indicator properties of asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 303-336, April.
- Guy Meredith & Bankim Chadha & Paul R. Masson, 1991.
"Models of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation,"
IMF Working Papers
91/97, International Monetary Fund.
- Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
93-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February.
- Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992.
"The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brayton, Flint & Mauskopf, Eileen, 1985. "The federal reserve board MPS quarterly econometric model of the US economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 170-292, July.
- Edmund Phelps, 1978. "Disinflation without recession: Adaptive guideposts and monetary policy," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 114(4), pages 783-809, December.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.