The (Un)Importance of Forward-Looking Behavior in Price Specifications
AbstractThe seminal work of Edmund S. Phelps (1978), John B. Taylor (1980), and Guillermo A. Calvo (1983) developed forward-looking models of price determination that imparted inertia to the price level. These models incorporate expectations of future prices and excess demand by imposing constraints (typically lag-lead symmetry constraints) that force future variables to enter the specification. In this paper, the author tests the empirical significance of future prices in specifications like those of Taylor. He finds that expectations of future prices are empirically unimportant in explaining price and inflation behavior. However, the dynamics of a model that includes a purely backward-looking inflation specification differ substantially--and not altogether pleasingly--from those with a forward-looking specification. Copyright 1997 by Ohio State University Press.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
Volume (Year): 29 (1997)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879
Other versions of this item:
- Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The [un]importance of forward-looking behavior in price specifications," Working Papers 95-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
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