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Testing the New Keynesian Phillips curve

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Author Info
Bårdsen, Gunnar () (Norges Bank, University of Oslo and Norwegian University of Science and Technology)
Jansen, Eilev S. (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)
Nymoen, Ragnar () (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)

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Abstract

The dynamic properties of the The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NPC) is analysed within the framework of a small system of linear di.erence equations.We evaluate the empirical results of existing studies which uses ‘Euroland’ and US data. The debate has been centered around the goodness-of-fit, but this is a weak criterion since the NPC-fit is typically well approximated by purely statistical models (e.g., a random walk). Several other parametric tests are then considered, and the importance of modelling a system that includes the forcing variables as well as the rate of inflation is emphasized. We also highlight the role of existing studies in providing new information relative to that which underlies the typical NPC. This encompassing approach is applied to open economy versions of the NPC for UK and Norway.

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File URL: http://www.oekonomi.uio.no/memo/memopdf/memo1802.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Oslo University, Department of Economics in its series Memorandum with number 18/2002.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 17 Jun 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2004.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2002_018

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Postal: Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway
Phone: 22 85 51 27
Fax: 22 85 50 35
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Web page: http://www.oekonomi.uio.no/indexe.html
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Related research
Keywords: New Keynesian Phillips curves; US inflation; Euro inflation; UK inflation; Norwegian inflation; Monetary policy; Dynamic stability conditions; Evaluation; Encompassing tests;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. John C. Driscoll & Steinar Holden, 2003. "Coordination, fair treatment and inflation persistence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2003. "New Keynesian Phillips curves - a reassessment using euro-area data," Working Paper Series 265, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Pål Boug, Ådne Cappelen and Anders Rygh Swensen, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve for a Small Open Economy," Discussion Papers 460, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  4. Nicoletta Batini, 2002. "Euro area inflation persistence," Working Paper Series 201, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Gunnar Bårdsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2002. "The Empirical (ir)Relevance of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Paper Series 2102, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology. [Downloadable!]
  6. Luca Bindelli, 2005. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips curve: a frequency domain approach," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 69, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ieva Rubene & Paolo Guarda, 2004. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: empirical results for Luxembourg," BCL working papers 11, Central Bank of Luxembourg. [Downloadable!]
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