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Open-Economy Inflation Targeting

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Author Info
Svensson, Lars E.O. () (Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University)

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Abstract

The paper extends previous analysis of closed-economy inflation targeting to a small open economy with forward-looking aggregate supply and demand with some microfoundations, and with stylized realistic lags in the different transmission channels for monetary policy. The paper compares targeting of CPI and domestic inflation, strict and flexible inflation targeting, and inflation-targeting reaction functions and the Taylor rule. The optimal monetary policy response to several different shocks is examined. Flexible CPI-inflation targeting stands out as successful in limiting not only the variability of CPI inflation but also the variability of the output gap, and induce similar monetary policy responses. The model gives limited support for a so-called monetary conditions index, MCI, of the monetary-policy impact on aggregate demand, but the impact on inflation is too complex to be acptured by any single index. The index differs from currently used indices in combining (1) a long rather than a short real interest rate with the real exchange rate and (2) expected future values rather than current values. Because of (2), the index is not directly observable and verifiable to external observers.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies in its series Seminar Papers with number 638.

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Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: 21 Apr 1998
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Handle: RePEc:hhs:iiessp:0638

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Postal: Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
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Web page: http://www.iies.su.se/
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Related research
Keywords: inflation targeting forward-looking

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1996. "Monetary Cohabitation in Europe," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 111-16, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Fair, Ray C. & Howrey, E. Philip, 1996. "Evaluating alternative monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 173-193, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Michael T. Kiley, 1996. "The lead of output over inflation in sticky price models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Stanley Fischer, 1996. "Why are central banks pursuing long-run price stability?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 7-34. [Downloadable!]
  5. E.O. Svensson, Lars, 1994. "Why exchange rate bands? : Monetary independence in spite of fixed exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 157-199, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Pesaran, M Hashem, 1991. "Costly Adjustment under Rational Expectations: A Generalization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 353-58, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Svensson, L-E-O, 1997. "Inflation Targeting : Some Extensions," Papers 625, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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  8. Glenn Rudebusch, 1996. "Is opportunistic monetary policy credible?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Oct 4. [Downloadable!]
  9. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Bennett T. McCallum, 1997. "Issues in the Design of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Mervyn King, 1994. "Monetary policy in the UK," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 109-28, August. [Downloadable!]
  14. Michael Woodford, 1996. "Control of the Public Debt: A Requirement for Price Stability?," NBER Working Papers 5684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Athanasios Orphanides & David W. Wilcox, 1996. "The opportunistic approach to disinflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  16. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," Seminar Papers 646, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  17. David Mayes & Brendon Riches, 1996. "The effectiveness of monetary policy in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 59, March. [Downloadable!]
  18. John P. Judd & Brian Motley, 1992. "Controlling inflation with an interest rate instrument," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-22. [Downloadable!]
  19. P.A. Tinsley, 1993. "Fitting both data and theories: polynomial adjustment costs and error- correction decision rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  20. John B. Taylor, 1998. "An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1997. "Optimal Inflation Targets, `Conservative' Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts," NBER Working Papers 5251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. William Kerr & Robert G. King, 1996. "Limits on interest rate rules in the IS model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 47-75. [Downloadable!]
Full references

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