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Forward-looking behavior and optimal discretionary monetary policy

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  • Kevin J. Lansing
  • Bharat Trehan

Abstract

This paper derives a closed-form solution for the optimal discretionary monetary policy in a small macroeconomic model that allows for varying degrees of forward-looking behavior. We show that a more forward-looking aggregate demand equation serves to attenuate the response to inflation and the output gap in the optimal interest rate rule. In contrast, a more forward-looking real interest rate equation serves to magnify the response to both variables. A more forward-looking Phillips curve serves to attenuate the response to inflation but magnifies the response to the output gap. ; Original title: Forward-looking behavior and the optimality of the Taylor rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin J. Lansing & Bharat Trehan, 2003. "Forward-looking behavior and optimal discretionary monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2001-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2001-03
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    3. Dr. Petra Gerlach & Dr. Barbara Rudolf, 2010. "Macroeconomic and interest rate volatility under alternative monetary operating procedures," Working Papers 2010-12, Swiss National Bank.
    4. Ulf Söderström & Paul Söderlind & Anders Vredin, 2005. "New‐Keynesian Models and Monetary Policy: A Re‐examination of the Stylized Facts," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(3), pages 521-546, September.
    5. Solange Berstein & Rodrigo Fuentes, 2005. "Concentration and Price Rigidity: Evidence for the Deposit Market in Chile," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 1-22, January-J.
    6. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    7. Richard Dennis, 2004. "Inferring Policy Objectives from Economic Outcomes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 735-764, September.
    8. M. Dossche & G. Everaert, 2005. "Measuring inflation persistence: a structural time series approach," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/340, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    9. Ramzi Drissi, 2014. "Robust Monetary Policy in An Uncertain Economic Environment: Evidence from Tunisian Economy," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(7), pages 969-986, July.
    10. Antonio Moreno, 2004. "The Feds Monetary Policy Rule: Past, Present and Future," Faculty Working Papers 02/04, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    11. Rohan Longmore & Wayne Robinson, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Exchange Rate Dynamics in Jamaica: an Application of Asymmetric Volatility Models," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 23-56, January-J.
    12. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra & Rudolf, Barbara, 2010. "Financial shocks and the maturity of the monetary policy rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 333-337, June.

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