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Forward-looking behavior and optimal discretionary monetary policy

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  • Kevin J. Lansing
  • Bharat Trehan

Abstract

This paper derives a closed-form solution for the optimal discretionary monetary policy in a small macroeconomic model that allows for varying degrees of forward-looking behavior. We show that a more forward-looking aggregate demand equation serves to attenuate the response to inflation and the output gap in the optimal interest rate rule. In contrast, a more forward-looking real interest rate equation serves to magnify the response to both variables. A more forward-looking Phillips curve serves to attenuate the response to inflation but magnifies the response to the output gap. ; Original title: Forward-looking behavior and the optimality of the Taylor rule.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2001-03.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2001-03

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Inflation (Finance) ; Taylor's rule;

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References

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  1. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May.
  2. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April.
  3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Rudebusch, Glenn D & Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1999, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," NBER Working Papers 5797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Schaling, Eric & Verhagen, Willem, 2000. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Inflation Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 2375, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  8. Laurence Ball, 1997. "Efficient rules for monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/3, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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Cited by:
  1. Kevin J. Lansing, 2006. "Time-Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 488, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Rohan Longmore & Wayne Robinson, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Exchange Rate Dynamics in Jamaica: an Application of Asymmetric Volatility Models," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 23-56, January-J.
  3. Maarten Dossche & Gerdie Everaert, 2005. "Measuring Inflation Persistence: A Structural Time Series Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 459, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. Victor, Olivo, 2005. "Interest rate rules VS money growth rules: some theoretical issues and an empirical application for Venezuela," MPRA Paper 41253, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Barbara Rudolf, 2010. "Macroeconomic and interest rate volatility under alternative monetary operating procedures," Working Papers 2010-12, Swiss National Bank.
  6. Antonio Moreno, 2004. "The Feds Monetary Policy Rule: Past, Present and Future," Faculty Working Papers 02/04, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  7. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
  8. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra & Rudolf, Barbara, 2010. "Financial shocks and the maturity of the monetary policy rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 333-337, June.
  9. VĂ­ctor Olivo, 2005. "Interest Rate Rules vs. Money Growth Rules: Some Theoretical Issues and an Empirical Application for Venezuela," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 57-82, January-J.
  10. Solange Berstein & Rodrigo Fuentes, 2005. "Concentration and Price Rigidity: Evidence for the Deposit Market in Chile," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 1-22, January-J.

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