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Forward-looking behavior and optimal discretionary monetary policy

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  • Lansing, Kevin J.
  • Trehan, Bharat

Abstract

This paper derives a closed-form solution for the optimal discretionary monetary policy in a small macroeconomic model that allows for varying degrees of forward-looking behavior. We show that a more forward-looking aggregate demand equation serves to attenuate the response to inflation and the output gap in the optimal interest rate rule. In contrast, a more forward-looking real interest rate equation serves to magnify the response to both variables. A more forward-looking Phillips curve serves to attenuate the response to inflation but magnifies the response to the output gap. ; Original title: Forward-looking behavior and the optimality of the Taylor rule.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 81 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (November)
Pages: 249-256

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:81:y:2003:i:2:p:249-256

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References

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  1. Svensson, Lars E.O. & Rudebusch , Glenn, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 637, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  2. Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," CEPR Discussion Papers 1511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Ball, Laurence, 1999. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 63-83, April.
  4. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Scholarly Articles 3415324, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  5. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2000. "Assessing nominal income rules for monetary policy with model and data uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0014, European Central Bank.
  6. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Schaling, E. & Verhagen, W.H., 1998. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Inflation Forecast Targeting," Discussion Paper 1998-85, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  7. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May.
  8. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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Cited by:
  1. M. Dossche & G. Everaert, 2005. "Measuring inflation persistence: a structural time series approach," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/340, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  2. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Barbara Rudolf, 2010. "Macroeconomic and interest rate volatility under alternative monetary operating procedures," BIS Working Papers 319, Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Kevin Lansing, 2009. "Time Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 304-326, April.
  4. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra & Rudolf, Barbara, 2010. "Financial shocks and the maturity of the monetary policy rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 333-337, June.
  5. VĂ­ctor Olivo, 2005. "Interest Rate Rules vs. Money Growth Rules: Some Theoretical Issues and an Empirical Application for Venezuela," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 57-82, January-J.
  6. Rohan Longmore & Wayne Robinson, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Exchange Rate Dynamics in Jamaica: an Application of Asymmetric Volatility Models," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 23-56, January-J.
  7. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
  8. Victor, Olivo, 2005. "Interest rate rules VS money growth rules: some theoretical issues and an empirical application for Venezuela," MPRA Paper 41253, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Solange Berstein & Rodrigo Fuentes, 2005. "Concentration and Price Rigidity: Evidence for the Deposit Market in Chile," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 1-22, January-J.
  10. Antonio Moreno, 2004. "The Feds Monetary Policy Rule: Past, Present and Future," Faculty Working Papers 02/04, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.

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