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Alternative Monetary Policy Rules: A Comparison with Historical Settings for the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan

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Bennett T. McCallum

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Abstract

This paper conducts counterfactual historical analysis of several monetary policy rules by contrasting actual settings of instrument variables with values that would have been specified by the rules in response to prevailing conditions. Of particular interest is whether major policy mistakes, judged ex post, would have been prevented by candidate rules. The rules studied include those of Taylor and McCallum, previously considered by Alison Stuart, plus several additional combinations of instrument and target variables. The time spans examined are 1962-1998 for the U.S. and U.K., and 1972-1998 for Japan. In addition to various substantive findings, the paper develops several methodological arguments. A surprising result is that rules' messages are evidently more dependent upon the specification of their instrument than their target variable.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7725.

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Date of creation: Jun 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7725

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

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  1. repec:fip:fedreq:y:1987:i:sep:p:10-18:n:v.73no.5 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Robert E. Hall & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Nominal Income Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 71-94 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Bennett T. McCallum, 1997. "Issues in the Design of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Sharon Kozicki, 1999. "How useful are Taylor rules for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-33. [Downloadable!]
  5. John B. Taylor, 1998. "An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "Nominal income targeting in an open-economy optimizing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 553-578, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1999. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semiclassical Structural Model," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 15-56 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Edward Nelson & Kalin Nikolov, . "UK inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: the role of output gap mismeasurement," Bank of England working papers 148, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. James Harrigan & Kenneth Kuttner, 2004. "Lost Decade in Translation: Did the US Learn from Japan's Post-Bubble Mistakes?," NBER Working Papers 10938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Samuel Reynard, 2007. "Maintaining low inflation: money, interest rates, and policy stance," Working Paper Series 756, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Laurence Ball, 2005. "Fiscal Remedies for Japan's Slump," NBER Working Papers 11374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Shu Wu & Shigeru Iwata, 2004. "Estimating Monetary Policy Effects When Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 478, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  6. José Sánchez-fung, 2005. "Estimating a monetary policy reaction function for the dominican republic," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 563-577, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Nelson, Edward, 2001. "What Does the UK's Monetary Policy and Inflation Experience Tell Us About the Transmission Mechanism?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3047, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Athanasios Orphanides, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2003. "The Difficulty of Discerning What's Too Tight: Taylor Rules and Japanese Monetary Policy," Peterson Institute Working Paper Series WP03-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Richard Dennis, 2001. "The policy preferences of the U.S. Federal Reserve," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2001-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Klaus Masuch & Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari & Massimo Rostagno & Huw Pill, 2003. "The role of money in monetary policymaking," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 158-191 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  12. Richard Dennis, 2005. "Inflation targeting under commitment and discretion," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-13. [Downloadable!]
  13. Nicoletta Batini & Richard Harrison & Stephen P. Millard, 2001. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders, 2001. "Forecast-based Monetary Policy in Sweden 1992-1998: A View from Within," Working Paper Series 120, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  15. Campbell Leith & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2002. "Taylor Rules in the Open Economy," Working Papers 2002_14, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  16. Takatoshi Ito & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Two Decades of Japanese Monetary Policy and the Deflation Problem," NBER Working Papers 10878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Daniel Leigh, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Dangers of Deflation:Lessons from Japan," Economics Working Paper Archive 511, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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