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Monetary policy and uncertainty about the natural unemployment rate

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Volker Wieland

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Abstract

This paper studies the optimal monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty about the natural rate and the short-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff. Two conflicting motives drive policy. In the static version of the model, uncertainty provides a motive for the policymaker to move cautiously. In the dynamic version, uncertainty motivates an element of experimentation. I find that the optimal policy that balances these motives typically still exhibits gradualism, i.e., is less aggressive than a policy that disregards parameter uncertainty. Exceptions occur when uncertainty is very high and inflation close to target.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1998-22.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1998-22

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Keywords: Monetary policy Unemployment

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    Other versions:
  2. Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John V, 1993. "Sectoral Shocks, Learning, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(4), pages 777-94, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Stiglitz, Joseph, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 1998. "Robustness of simple monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Aksoy, Yunus & Orphanides, Athanasios & Small, David & Wieland, Volker & Wilcox, David, 2003. "A Quantitative Exploration of the Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4073, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Mizrach, Bruce, 1991. "Nonconvexities in a stochastic control problem with learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 515-538, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. King, Robert G. & Watson, Mark W., 1994. "The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 157-219, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Bertocchi, Graziella & Spagat, Michael, 1991. "Learning, Experimentation and Monetary Policy," Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) Discussion Paper 1991018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
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  20. Henderson, Dale W. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1972. "Optimal macroeconomic policy adjustment under conditions of risk," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 58-71, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Aghion Philippe & Bolton, Patrick & Harris Christopher & Jullien Bruno, 1991. "Optimal learning by experimentation," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9104, CEPREMAP.
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  27. Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F, 1994. "Inflation Variability and Gradualist Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(4), pages 721-38, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  33. Blanchard, Olivier & Katz, Lawrence F, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  34. Haizhou Huang & Peter B Clark & Charles Goodhart, 1996. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in a Rational Expectations Model of the Phillips Curve," FMG Discussion Papers dp247, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  37. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2001. "Robust Control and Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 60-66, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  42. Aghion, Philippe, et al, 1991. "Optimal Learning by Experimentation," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(4), pages 621-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  43. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 2003. "The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 622-645, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  44. William Poole, 1999. "Monetary policy rules?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 3-12. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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