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Are 'Deep' Parameters Stable? The Lucas Critique as an Empirical Hypothesis

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Author Info
Jeff Fuhrer () (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)
Arturo Estrella () (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

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Abstract

For years, the problems associated with the Lucas critique have loomed over empirical macroeconomics. However, relatively little effort has been devoted to testing the empirical importance of this critique. This paper develops a set of tests for small macroeconometric models, especially those used for monetary policy analysis, and implements them on a set of models used extensively in the literature. In particular, I attempt to test the robustness of optimizing versus non-optimizing models to changes in the monetary policy regime.

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 with number 621.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 1999
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf9:621

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Postal: CEF99, Boston College, Department of Economics, Chestnut Hill MA 02467 USA
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Web page: http://fmwww.bc.edu/CEF99/
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  1. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Ghysels, Eric & Hall, Alastair, 1990. "A Test for Structural Stability of Euler Conditions Parameters Estimated via the Generalized Method of Moments Estimator," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(2), pages 355-64, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Andrews, Donald W K & Fair, Ray C, 1988. "Inference in Nonlinear Econometric Models with Structural Change," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(4), pages 615-39, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ghysels, E. & Guay, A. & Hall, A., 1995. "Predictive Tests for Structural Change with Unknown Breakpoint," Cahiers de recherche 9524, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
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  6. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 1998. "Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 616, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Oliner, Stephen D. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Sichel, Daniel, 1996. "The Lucas critique revisited assessing the stability of empirical Euler equations for investment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 291-316, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Anderson, Gary & Moore, George, 1985. "A linear algebraic procedure for solving linear perfect foresight models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 247-252. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2001. "Assessing simple policy rules: a view from a complete macroeconomic model," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 83-112. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Olivier Basdevant, 2003. "Learning process and rational expectations: an analysis using a small macroeconomic model for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  3. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2000. "Assessing simple policy rules: a view from a complete macro model," Working Paper 2000-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kevin D. Hoover & Òscar Jordà, 2001. "Measuring systematic monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 113-144. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Grégory Levieuge & Alexis Penot, 2008. "The Fed and the ECB: Why such an apparent difference in reactivity?," Working Papers 0804, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure. [Downloadable!]
  6. Lindé, Jesper, 2001. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips Curves: A Full Information Maximum Likelihood Approach," Working Paper Series 129, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 30 Apr 2001. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Peter N. Ireland, 1999. "Sticky-Price Models of the Business Cycle: Specification and Stability," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 426, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Katharine Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2002. "Inflation dynamics, marginal cost, and the output gap: evidence from three countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
  9. Lindé, Jesper, 2001. "The Empirical Relevance of Simple Forward- and Backward-looking Models: A View from a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Working Paper Series 130, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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