Learning, Forecasting and Structural Breaks
Abstract
We provide a general methodology for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks induced by unpredictable changes to model parameters. Bayesian methods of learning and model comparison are used to derive a predictive density that takes into account the possibility that a break will occur before the next observation. Estimates for the posterior distribution of the most recent break are generated as a by-product of our procedure. We discuss the importance of using priors that accurately reflect the econometrician's opinions as to what constitutes a plausible forecast. Several applications to macroeconomic time-series data demonstrate the usefulness of our procedure.Download Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by University of Toronto, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number tecipa-284.Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 30 Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-284
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 150 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario
Phone: (416) 978-5283
Related research
Keywords: Bayesian Model Averaging; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Real GDP Growth; Phillip's Curve;Other versions of this item:
- John M. Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2008. "Learning, forecasting and structural breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 553-583.
- John M. Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2004. "Learning, Forecasting and Structural Breaks," Cahiers de recherche 0422, CIRPEE.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-04-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-04-09 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ECM-2007-04-09 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2007-04-09 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2007-04-09 (Forecasting)
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ghysels, Eric & Hall, Alastair, 1990.
"A Test for Structural Stability of Euler Conditions Parameters Estimated via the Generalized Method of Moments Estimator,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(2), pages 355-64, May.
- Ghysels, E & Hall, A., 1988. "A Test For Structural Stability Of Euler Conditions Parameters Estimated Via The Generalized Methods Of Moments Estimators," Cahiers de recherche 8837, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 2002.
"End-of-Sample Instability Tests,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1369, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- D. W. K. Andrews, 2003. "End-of-Sample Instability Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1661-1694, November.
- Chib, Siddhartha, 2001. "Markov chain Monte Carlo methods: computation and inference," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 57, pages 3569-3649 Elsevier.
- Eric Ghysels & Alain Guay & Alastair Hall, 1995.
"Predictive Tests for Structural Change with Unknown Breakpoint,"
CIRANO Working Papers
95s-20, CIRANO.
- Ghysels, Eric & Guay, Alain & Hall, Alastair, 1998. "Predictive tests for structural change with unknown breakpoint," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 209-233, February.
- Ghysels, E. & Guay, A. & Hall, A., 1995. "Predictive Tests for Structural Change with Unknown Breakpoint," Cahiers de recherche 9524, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Ghysels, E. & Guay, A. & Hall, A., 1995. "Predictive Tests for Structural Change with Unknown Breakpoint," Cahiers de recherche 9524, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002.
"Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics,"
NBER Chapters,
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 331-388
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, . "Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 2132872, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
- Dufour, Jean-Marie & Ghysels, Eric & Hall, Alastair, 1994.
"Generalized Predictive Tests and Structural Change Analysis in Econometrics,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(1), pages 199-229, February.
- Dufour, J.M. & Ghysels, E. & Hall, A., 1992. "Generalized Predictive Tests and Structural Change Analysis in Econometrics," Cahiers de recherche 9223, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Dufour, J.M. & Ghysels, E. & Hall, A., 1992. "Generalized Predictive Tests and Structural Change Analysis in Econometrics," Cahiers de recherche 9223, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- John F. Geweke, 1994. "Bayesian comparison of econometric models," Working Papers 532, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- repec:bla:restud:v:73:y:2006:i:4:p:1057-1084 is not listed on IDEAS
- Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R & Piger, Jeremy, 2004.
"The Less-Volatile U.S. Economy: A Bayesian Investigation of Timing, Breadth, and Potential Explanations,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 80-93, January.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "The less volatile U.S. economy: a Bayesian investigation of timing, breadth, and potential explanations," Working Papers 2001-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson & Jeremy Piger, 2001. "The less volatile U.S. economy: a Bayesian investigation of timing, breadth, and potential explanations," International Finance Discussion Papers 707, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004.
"Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4636, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2004. "‘Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0433, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 1237, CESifo Group Munich.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," IZA Discussion Papers 1196, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Andrews, Donald W. K. & Lee, Inpyo & Ploberger, Werner, 1996.
"Optimal changepoint tests for normal linear regression,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 9-38, January.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Inpyo Lee & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Changepoint Tests for Normal Linear Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1016, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999.
"Forecasting inflation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2002.
"Market Timing and Return Prediction under Model Instability,"
FMG Discussion Papers
dp412, Financial Markets Group.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2002. "Market timing and return prediction under model instability," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 495-510, December.
- Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 1999.
"Are apparent findings of nonlinearity due to structural instability in economic time series?,"
Staff Reports
59, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2001. "Are apparent findings of nonlinearity due to structural instability in economic time series?," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 38.
- Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert, 2006.
"Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multiple Change-Point and Mixture Innovation Models,"
Working Paper Series
196, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert, 2008. "Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multiple Change-Point and Mixture Innovation Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 66-77, January.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Econometrica,
Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1992.
"Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 321-35, July.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1057-1084.
- Chib, Siddhartha, 1998. "Estimation and comparison of multiple change-point models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 221-241, June.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Selection of estimation window in the presence of breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 134-161, March.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- repec:bla:restud:v:74:y:2007:i:3:p:763-789 is not listed on IDEAS
Citations
Blog mentions
As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:- Economic growth and convergence
by Stephen Gordon in Worthwhile Canadian Initiative on 2009-12-24 11:00:00 - Economic growth and convergence
by Stephen in Worthwhile Canadian Initiative on 2006-03-26 01:24:17
Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.
Lists
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-284For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RePEc Maintainer).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

