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On Stable Factor Structurs in the Pricing of Risk

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  • Ghysels, E.

Abstract

Much of the research describing the cross-sectional and time series behavior of asset returns can be characterized as a search for the relevant state variables and also a search for the relevant model specification. Ultimately the scope of such efforts is to find a satisfactory and stable asset pricing structure. In this paper we discuss various methods to accomplish this and appraise the success of two recently proposed classes of asset pricing models in tracking predictable patterns in risk and return trade-offs. The two classes are the conditional CAPM and the nonlinear APT. The parameters of both models are estimated via a set of moment conditions using the GMM estimator and the model fit is judged on the basis of the overidentifying restrictions. The fundamental problem is that overidentifying restrictions tests are not designed to diagnose whether a model, provides a stable relationship between the return series and risk factors. We use a set of recently developed tests for structural stability of parameter estimates for the GMM estimator to diagnose which factor structures appear stable through time in the context of the two aforementioned classes of models. In the course of trying to sort out whether there is systematic mispricing we shall also try to determine what type of model looks most promising for further development. In that regard we find the nonlinear APT more satisfactory than the conditional APT and CAPM. Dans cette étude nous réexaminons les modèles à facteurs qui ont été proposés récemment, c'est à dire le CAPM conditionnel et l'APT non-linéaire. Ces modèles ont été estimés par la méthode des moments généralisée. La diagnostique usuelle pour juger ces modèles est la statistique de suridentification. Le problème fondamental de cette statistique est qu'elle n'a pas de puissance par rapport à des alternatives caractérisés par des variations de paramètres. Évidement, ces variations entraînent des erreurs sur l'évaluation

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 9525.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 1995
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:9525

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References

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  1. Dufour, J.M. & Ghysels, E. & Hall, A., 1992. "Generalized Predictive Tests and Structural Change Analysis in Econometrics," Cahiers de recherche 9223, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  2. Stulz, ReneM., 1981. "A model of international asset pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 383-406, December.
  3. Ferson, Wayne E & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1995. "Do Arbitrage Pricing Models Explain the Predictability of Stock Returns?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 309-49, July.
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  6. Ghysels, Eric & Hall, Alastair, 1990. "A Test for Structural Stability of Euler Conditions Parameters Estimated via the Generalized Method of Moments Estimator," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(2), pages 355-64, May.
  7. Ghysels, E. & Guay, A. & Hall, A., 1995. "Predictive Tests for Structural Change with Unknown Breakpoint," Cahiers de recherche 9524, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Martin Scheicher, 2000. "Time-varying risk in the German stock market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 70-91.
  2. Thierry Post & Haim Levy, 2002. "Does Risk Seeking drive Asset Prices?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-070/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  3. Schrimpf, Andreas & Schröder, Michael & Stehle, Richard, 2006. "Evaluating conditional asset pricing models for the German stock market," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-43, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  4. Touhami, A. & Martens, A., 1996. "Macroemesures in Computable General Equilibrium Models: a Probabilistic Treatment with an Application to Morocco," Cahiers de recherche 9621, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  5. Marco Antonio Bonomo & Rene Garcia, 1997. "Tests of conditional asset pricing models in the Brazilian stock market," Textos para discussão 368, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  6. Geert Bekaert & Guojun Wu, 1997. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 6022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Stefano D'Addona & Mattia Ciprian, 2007. "Time Varying Sensitivities On A Grid Architecture," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 307-329.
  8. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 7009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Michael W. Brandt & David A. Chapman, 2006. "Linear Approximations and Tests of Conditional Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 12513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Elena Andreou, 2004. "The Impact of Sampling Frequency and Volatility Estimators on Change-Point Tests," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(2), pages 290-318.
  11. Wayne E. Ferson & Andrew F. Siegel, 2006. "Testing Portfolio Efficiency with Conditioning Information," NBER Working Papers 12098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Ho-Chuan Huang & Wan-hsiu Cheng, 2005. "Tests of the CAPM under structural changes," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 523-541.

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