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Are the Latent Variables in Time-Varying Expected Returns Compensation for Consumption Risk?

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Author Info
Ferson, Wayne E
Abstract

Multibeta asset pricing models are examined using proxies for economic state variables in a framework that exploits time-varying expected returns to estimate conditional betas. Examples include multiple consumption-beta models and models where asset returns proxy for the state variables. When the state variables are not specified, the tests indicate two or three time-varying expected risk premiums in the sample of quarterly asset returns. Conditional betas relative to consumption generate less striking evidence against the model than betas relative to asset returns, but both the consumption and the market variables fail to proxy for the state variables. Copyright 1990 by American Finance Association.

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Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 45 (1990)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 397-429
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:45:y:1990:i:2:p:397-429

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  1. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1996. "Fundamental Determinants of National Equity Market Returns: A Perspective on Conditional Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 5860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan) & MacKinlay, Archie Craig, 1955-, 1992. "Maximizing predictability in the stock and bond markets," Working papers 3450-92., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 4621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Eric Ghysels, 1995. "On Stable Factor Structures in the Pricing of Risk," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-16, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Todd Prono, 2006. "GARCH-based identification of triangular systems with an application to the CAPM: still living with the roll critique," Working Papers 07-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  6. John Campbell & Jianping Mei, 1993. "Where do Betas Come From? Asset Price Dynamics and the Sources of Systematic Risk," NBER Working Papers 4329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Locarno, Alberto & Massa, Massimo, 2005. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 4828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. B. Carmichael & L. Samson, 2003. "Expected returns and economic risk in Canadian financial markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 177-189, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Andrew W. Lo & Jiang Wang, 1994. "Implementing Option Pricing Models When Asset Returns Are Predictable," NBER Working Papers 4720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Campbell R. Harvey & Bruno Solnik & Guofu Zhou, 1994. "What Determines Expected International Asset Returns?," NBER Working Papers 4660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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