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Are the Latent Variables in Time-Varying Expected Returns Compensation for Consumption Risk?

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  • Ferson, Wayne E
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    Abstract

    Multibeta asset pricing models are examined using proxies for economic state variables in a framework that exploits time-varying expected returns to estimate conditional betas. Examples include multiple consumption-beta models and models where asset returns proxy for the state variables. When the state variables are not specified, the tests indicate two or three time-varying expected risk premiums in the sample of quarterly asset returns. Conditional betas relative to consumption generate less striking evidence against the model than betas relative to asset returns, but both the consumption and the market variables fail to proxy for the state variables. Copyright 1990 by American Finance Association.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

    Volume (Year): 45 (1990)
    Issue (Month): 2 (June)
    Pages: 397-429

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:45:y:1990:i:2:p:397-429

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    Cited by:
    1. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1996. "Fundamental Determinants of National Equity Market Returns: A Perspective on Conditional Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 5860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lo, Andrew W & Wang, Jiang, 1995. " Implementing Option Pricing Models When Asset Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 87-129, March.
    3. Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan) & MacKinlay, Archie Craig, 1955-, 1992. "Maximizing predictability in the stock and bond markets," Working papers 3450-92., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    4. Ghysels, E., 1995. "On Stable Factor Structurs in the Pricing of Risk," Cahiers de recherche 9525, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    5. Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 4621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Campbell, John Y. & Mei, Jianping, 1993. "Where Do Betas Come From? Asset Price Dynamics and the Sources of Systematic Risk," Scholarly Articles 3353757, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    7. Elton, Edwin J. & Gruber, Martin J. & Mei, Jianping, 1996. "Return generating process and the determinants of term premiums," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 1251-1269, August.
    8. Todd Prono, 2006. "GARCH-based identification of triangular systems with an application to the CAPM: still living with the roll critique," Working Papers 07-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    9. Campbell R. Harvey & Bruno Solnik & Guofu Zhou, 2002. "What Determines Expected International Asset Returns?," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 3(2), pages 249-298, November.
    10. Javid, Attiya Yasmin, 2008. "Forecasting performance of capital asset pricing models in case of Pakistani market," MPRA Paper 37562, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Locarno, Alberto & Massa, Massimo, 2005. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 4828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. B. Carmichael & L. Samson, 2003. "Expected returns and economic risk in Canadian financial markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 177-189.

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