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Macroemesures in Computable General Equilibrium Models: a Probabilistic Treatment with an Application to Morocco

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  • Touhami, A.
  • Martens, A.
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    Abstract

    With the help of an illustrative general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Moroccan Economy, we test for the significance of simulation results in the case where the exact macromesure is not known with certainty. This is done by computing lower and upper bounds for the simulation resukts, given a priori probabilities attached to three possible closures (Classical, Johansen, Keynesian). Our Conclusion is that, when there is uncertainty on closures several endogenous changes lack significance, which, in turn, limit the use of the model for policy prescriptions.

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1866/2045
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 9621.

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    Length: 28 pages
    Date of creation: 1996
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:9621

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    33. Margolis, D..N., 1995. "Firm Heterogeneity and Worker Self-Selection Bias Estimated Returns to Seniority," Cahiers de recherche 9502, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    34. Kollmann, R., 1995. "Mark Up Fluctuations in U.S. Manufacturing and Trade: New Empirical Evidence Based on a Model of Optimal Storage," Cahiers de recherche 9526, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
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