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An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process

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Author Info

  • Campbell, B.
  • Ghysels, E.

Abstract

This paper provides a statistical analysis of the forecasts of a significant number of expenditure and revenue components of the federal budget provided each year by the Department of Finance. The sample available for such an investigation is limited, and the authors describe an easily applied non-parametric testing methodology that is more appropriate than the usual regression-based approach in small samples. The reliability and relative power of the various non-parametric tests are illustrated in a series of simulations. Applying these tests to the fiscal forecasts, they find that there is little cause to be concerned with the forecast performance of the Department of Finance over the last seventeen years.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 9523.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 1995
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mtl:montec:9523

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Keywords: BUDGET; ECONOMIC MODELS; TESTS;

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References

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  1. Dufour, J.M., 1988. "Non-Uniform Bounds for Nonparametric T Tests," Cahiers de recherche 8820, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  2. Campbell, Bryan & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1991. "Over-rejections in rational expectations models : A non-parametric approach to the Mankiw-Shapiro problem," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 285-290, March.
  3. Gentry, William M., 1989. "Do State Revenue Forecasters Utilize Available Information," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 42(4), pages 429-39, December .
  4. repec:cup:etheor:v:7:y:1991:i:2:p:253-63 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1998. "Graphical Methods for Investigating the Size and Power of Hypothesis Tests," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 66(1), pages 1-26, January.
  6. Feenberg, D.R. & Gentry, W. & Gilroy, D. & Rosen, H.S., 1988. "Testing The Rationality Of State Revenue Forecasts," Papers 16, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Discussion Paper.
  7. Dufour, J.M., 1981. "Rank Tests for Serial Dependence," Cahiers de recherche 8127, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  8. Campbell, Bryan & Ghysels, Eric, 1995. "Federal Budget Projections: A Nonparametric Assessment of Bias and Efficiency," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 17-31, February.
  9. Gregory Mankiw, N. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1986. "Do we reject too often? : Small sample properties of tests of rational expectations models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 139-145.
  10. Friedman, Benjamin M., 1980. "Survey evidence on the `rationality' of interest rate expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 453-465, October.
  11. Mark S. Kamlet & David C. Mowery & Tsai-Tsu Su, 1987. "Whom do you trust? An analysis of executive and congressional economic forecasts," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 365-384.
  12. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1980. "Survey Evidence on The Rationality of Interest Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 0261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Cassidy, Glenn & Kamlet, Mark S. & Nagin, Daniel S., 1989. "An empirical examination of bias in revenue forecasts by state governments," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 321-331.
  14. Plesko, George A., 1988. "The Accuracy of Government Forecasts and Budget Projections," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 41(4), pages 483-501, December .
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Touhami, A. & Martens, A., 1996. "Macroemesures in Computable General Equilibrium Models: a Probabilistic Treatment with an Application to Morocco," Cahiers de recherche 9621, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  2. Mikhail Golosov & J. R. King, 2002. "Tax Revenue Forecasts in IMF-Supported Programs," IMF Working Papers 02/236, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Amigues, J.-P. & Favard, P. & Gaudet, G. & Moreaux, M., 1996. "On The Optimal Order of Natural Resourse Use When the Capacity of the Inexhaustible Substitute is Limited," Papers 96.431, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
  4. Florian Chatagny, 2013. "Incentive Effects of Fiscal Rules on the Finance Minister’s Behaviour: Evidence from Revenue Projections in Swiss Cantons," KOF Working papers 13-347, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.

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