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Survey Evidence on The Rationality of Interest Rate Expectations

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  • Benjamin M. Friedman
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    Abstract

    An analysis of predictions of six interest rates over 3-months-ahead and 6-months-aheadhorizons, surveyed regularly over eight years, casts doubt on the hypothesis that market participants' expectations are 'rational' in Muth's sense. Tests show that the survey respondents did not make unbiased predictions, that (especially for the 6-months-ahead predictions) they did not efficiently exploit the information contained in past interest rate movements, that their respective 3-months-ahead and 6-months-ahead predictions failed to be consistent in the sense required for 'rationality', and that (for long-term but not short-term interest rates) their predictions failed to exploit efficiently the information contained in common macroeconomic and macro-policy variables other than the money stock.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0261.

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    Date of creation: Dec 1980
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    Publication status: published as Friedman, Benjamin M. "Survey Evidence on the Rationality of Interest Rate Expectations." Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 6, No. 4, (October 1980) , pp. 453-465.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0261

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    1. William Poole, 1976. "Rational Expectations in the Macro Model," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(2), pages 463-514.
    2. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    3. William Poole, 2001. "Expectations," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 1-10.
    4. Phelps, Edmund S & Taylor, John B, 1977. "Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 163-90, February.
    5. Simon, Herbert A, 1979. "Rational Decision Making in Business Organizations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 493-513, September.
    6. Kane, Edward J & Malkiel, Burton G, 1976. "Autoregressive and Nonautoregressive Elements in Cross-Section Forecasts of Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 1-16, January.
    7. Turnovsky, Stephen J & Wachter, Michael L, 1972. "A Test of the "Expectations Hypothesis" Using Directly Observed Wage and Price Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 54(1), pages 47-54, February.
    8. Pesando, James E, 1975. "A Note on the Rationality of the Livingston Price Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(4), pages 849-58, August.
    9. Lintner, John, 1969. "The Aggregation of Investor's Diverse Judgments and Preferences in Purely Competitive Security Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(04), pages 347-400, December.
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