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Anticipated Money, Inflation Uncertainty, and Real Economic Activity

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Author Info
John H. Makin
Abstract

This paper critically examines a number of maintained hypotheses that are necessarily being tested along with the basic notion derived from the rational expectations (RE) formulation of Lucas (1972) (19 73) that "only unanticipated money matters." The trend stationary representation of secular real output of Lucas and others is replaced by a difference stationary representation found by Nelson and Plosser (1980) to be consistent with U. S. historical data. The impact of inflation uncertainty on real activity is considered. Attention is paid to possible mis-measurement of agents' ex ante -- anticipated money growth. It is found that three alternative measures of anticipated money growth produce a stable impact on growth of output and employment. Contemporaneous and lagged values of unanticipated money growth have no significant additional explanatory power in the presence of any one of the three measures of anticipated money growth. Beyond this, it is impossible to reject the hypothesis that the initial positive real impact of anticipated money is not temporary. Inflation uncertainty is found to act as a significant depressant of real economic activity in the presence of all tested combinations of anticipated and unanticipated money growth.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0760.

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Date of creation: Apr 1982
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0760

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Sheffrin, Steven M, 1979. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Output Fluctuations," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 1-13, January.
  2. Levi, Maurice D & Makin, John H, 1979. "Fisher, Phillips, Friedman and the Measured Impact of Inflation on Interest," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 35-52, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Robert J. Gordon, 1979. "New Evidence that Fully Anticipated Monetary Changes Influence Real Output After All," Discussion Papers 369, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Michael R. Darby, 1980. "Unanticipated or Actual Changes in Aggregate Demand Variables: A Cross-Country Analysis," NBER Working Papers 0589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. A. S. Blinder & S. Fischer, 1978. "Inventories, Rational Expectations, and the Business Cycle," Working papers 220, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  8. William S. Haraf, 1978. "Inventories, orders and the persistent effects of monetary shocks," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 63-86.
  9. Mullineaux, Donald J, 1980. "Unemployment, Industrial Production, and Inflation Uncertainty in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(2), pages 163-69, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. McCallum, Bennett T, 1979. "On the Observational Inequivalence of Classical and Keynesian Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(2), pages 395-402, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. William Poole, 2001. "Expectations," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 1-10. [Downloadable!]
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    • William Poole, 2000. "Expectations," Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  12. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-15, March.
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  13. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 22-51, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "The Observational Equivalence of Natural and Unnatural Rate Theories of Macroeconomics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 631-40, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Sargent, Thomas J. & Wallace, Neil, 1976. "Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 169-183, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Robert J. Barro & Mark Rush, 1979. "Unanticipated Money and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 0339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Richard T. Froyen & Roger N. Waud, 1988. "Real Business Cycles and the Lucas Paradigm," NBER Working Papers 2109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo & Wolfers, Justin, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Research Papers 1807, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2000. "Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 384, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 09 Oct 2000. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Richard T. Froyen & Roger N. Waud, 1987. "An Examination of Aggregate Price Uncertainty in Four Countries and SomeImplications for Real Output," NBER Working Papers 1460, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bond, Gary E. & Thompson, Stanley R. & Geldard, Jane M., 1985. "Basis Risk And Hedging Strategies For Australian Wheat Exports," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 29(03), December. [Downloadable!]
  6. E Andreou & A Pelloni & M Sensier, 2003. "The effect of nominal shock uncertainty on output growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 40, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  7. G. S. Laumas, 1991. "Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Real Output," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 157-163, Apr-Jun. [Downloadable!]
  8. Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick, 1986. "Optimal Price and Inventory Adjustment in an Open-Economy Model of the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 1089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. John H. Makin & Vito Tanzi, 1983. "The Level and Volatility of Interest Rates in the United States: The Roles of Expected Inflation, Real Rates, and Taxes," NBER Working Papers 1167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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