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Anticipated Money, Inflation Uncertainty, and Real Economic Activity

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  • John H. Makin
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    Abstract

    This paper critically examines a number of maintained hypotheses that are necessarily being tested along with the basic notion derived from the rational expectations (RE) formulation of Lucas (1972) (19 73) that "only unanticipated money matters." The trend stationary representation of secular real output of Lucas and others is replaced by a difference stationary representation found by Nelson and Plosser (1980) to be consistent with U. S. historical data. The impact of inflation uncertainty on real activity is considered. Attention is paid to possible mis-measurement of agents' ex ante -- anticipated money growth. It is found that three alternative measures of anticipated money growth produce a stable impact on growth of output and employment. Contemporaneous and lagged values of unanticipated money growth have no significant additional explanatory power in the presence of any one of the three measures of anticipated money growth. Beyond this, it is impossible to reject the hypothesis that the initial positive real impact of anticipated money is not temporary. Inflation uncertainty is found to act as a significant depressant of real economic activity in the presence of all tested combinations of anticipated and unanticipated money growth.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0760.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0760.

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    Date of creation: Sep 1981
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    Publication status: published as Makin, John H. "Anticipated Money, Inflation Uncertainty, and Real Economic Activity." The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. LXIV, No. 1, (February 1982), pp. 126-134.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0760

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    1. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    2. Robert J. Barro & Mark Rush, 1980. "Unanticipated Money and Economic Activity," NBER Chapters, in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 23-73 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. William Poole, 2001. "Expectations," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 1-10.
    4. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1974. "Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy," Working Papers 29, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "The Observational Equivalence of Natural and Unnatural Rate Theories of Macroeconomics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 631-40, June.
    6. Levi, Maurice D & Makin, John H, 1979. "Fisher, Phillips, Friedman and the Measured Impact of Inflation on Interest," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 35-52, March.
    7. Blinder, Alan S. & Fischer, Stanley, 1981. "Inventories, rational expectations, and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 277-304.
    8. Michael R. Darby, 1980. "Unanticipated or Actual Changes in Aggregate Demand Variables: A Cross-Country Analysis," NBER Working Papers 0589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Sheffrin, Steven M, 1979. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Output Fluctuations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 17(1), pages 1-13, January.
    10. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "A Reexamination of Natural Rate Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 946-60, December.
    11. McCallum, Bennett T, 1979. "On the Observational Inequivalence of Classical and Keynesian Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(2), pages 395-402, April.
    12. Robert J. Barro, 1976. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," Working Papers 234, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    13. Cukierman, Alex & Wachtel, Paul, 1979. "Differential Inflationary Expectations and the Variability of the Rate of Inflation: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 595-609, September.
    14. Robert J. Gordon, 1979. "New Evidence That Fully Anticipated Monetary Changes Influence Real Output After All," NBER Working Papers 0361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
    16. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1980. "Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation," NBER Working Papers 0506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Haraf, William S., 1978. "Inventories, orders and the persistent effects of monetary shocks," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue 2, pages 63-86.
    18. Mullineaux, Donald J, 1980. "Unemployment, Industrial Production, and Inflation Uncertainty in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(2), pages 163-69, May.
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    Cited by:
    1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 9796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Froyen, Richard T & Waud, Roger N, 1987. "An Examination of Aggregate Price Uncertainty in Four Countries and Some Implications for Real Output," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(2), pages 353-72, June.
    3. Ramaprasad Bhar & Girijasankar Mallik, 2012. "Components of Inflation Uncertainty and Interest Rates: Evidence from Australia and New Zealand," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(1), pages 39-49, March.
    4. Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2011. "Longevity Risk, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," Working Papers 201111, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
    5. Bond, Gary E. & Thompson, Stanley R. & Geldard, Jane M., 1985. "Basis Risk And Hedging Strategies For Australian Wheat Exports," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 29(03), December.
    6. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2003. "Inflation forecast uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1037-1059, December.
    7. Richard T. Froyen & Roger N. Waud, 1986. "Real Business Cycles and the Lucas Paradigm," NBER Working Papers 2109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick, 1983. "Optimal Price and Inventory Adjustment in an Open-Economy Model of the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 1089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. G. S. Laumas, 1991. "Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Real Output," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 157-163, Apr-Jun.
    10. Paul, Biru Paksha, 2009. "In search of the Phillips curve for India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 479-488, September.
    11. John H. Makin & Vito Tanzi, 1983. "The Level and Volatility of Interest Rates in the United States: The Roles of Expected Inflation, Real Rates, and Taxes," NBER Working Papers 1167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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