IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/9699.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992)
[The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided tour to the literature published until 1992)]

Author

Listed:
  • Silva Lopes, Artur

Abstract

The main purpose of this work is to provide a panoramic and almost exhaustive view on the "rational expectations hypothesis" literature published until 1992. Several issues less well known are emphasized. Many results and comments are integrated and presented in a somewhat innovative fashion.

Suggested Citation

  • Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992) [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided tour ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9699
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9699/1/MPRA_paper_9699.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lovell, Michael C, 1986. "Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 110-124, March.
    2. Froot, Kenneth A. & Ito, Takatoshi, 1989. "On the consistency of short-run and long-run exchange rate expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 487-510, December.
    3. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-113, May.
    4. A. Steven Englander & Gary Stone, 1989. "Inflation expectations surveys as predictors of inflation and behavior in financial and labor markets," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 14(Aut), pages 20-32.
    5. Grossman, Jacob, 1981. "The "Rationality" of Money Supply Expectations and the Short-Run Response of Interest Rates to Monetary Surprises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(4), pages 409-424, November.
    6. Blume, Lawrence E. & Easley, David, 1982. "Learning to be rational," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 340-351, April.
    7. Grether, David M, 1978. "Recent Psychological Studies of Behavior under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 70-74, May.
    8. Levy, Amnon & Spivak, Avia, 1988. "How does the public perceive an unprecedented rise in inflation: The case of inflationary expectations in Israel," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 273-282.
    9. Gordon, Robert J., 1976. "Recent developments in the theory of inflation and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 185-219, April.
    10. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-153, March.
    11. Lahiri, Kajal & Zaporowski, Mark, 1987. "More Flexible Use of Survey Data on Expectations in Macroeconomic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 68-76, January.
    12. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1991. "Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 455-477.
    13. Baghestani, Hamid, 1992. "On the Formation of Expected Inflation under Various Conditions: Some Survey Evidence," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 281-293, April.
    14. Wallis, Kenneth F & Whitley, John D, 1991. " Large-Scale Econometric Models of National Economies," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(2), pages 283-314.
    15. MacDonald, Ronald & Speight, Alan E H, 1989. "Consumption, Saving and Rational Expectations: Some Further Evidence for the U.K," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 83-91, March.
    16. Baxter, Marianne, 1985. "The role of expectations in stabilization policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 343-362, May.
    17. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-115, March.
    18. Lewis, Karen K, 1989. "Changing Beliefs and Systematic Rational Forecast Errors with Evidence from Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 621-636, September.
    19. D. E. W. Laidler & J. M. Parkin, 1977. "Inflation: A Survey," Palgrave Macmillan Books,, Palgrave Macmillan.
    20. Evans, George & Gulamani, Riyaz, 1984. "Tests for Rationality of the Carlson-Parkin Inflation Expectations Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 46(1), pages 1-19, February.
    21. Ito, Takatoshi, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-449, June.
    22. Jocelyn Horne, 1981. "Rational Expectations and the Defris‐Williams Inflationary Expectations Series," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 57(3), pages 261-268, September.
    23. Pesaran, M H, 1982. "A Critique of the Proposed Tests of the Natural Rate-Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 529-554, September.
    24. Gramlich, Edward M, 1983. "Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: A Comparison of Household and Economist Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(2), pages 155-173, May.
    25. Pesando, James E, 1975. "A Note on the Rationality of the Livingston Price Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(4), pages 849-858, August.
    26. Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1991. "Blue Chip Rationality Tests," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(4), pages 692-705, November.
    27. Lai, Kon S., 1990. "An evaluation of survey exchange rate forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 61-65, January.
    28. Ball, Laurence, 1991. "The Genesis of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 439-452, August.
    29. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-735, September.
    30. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1989. "Market efficiency and cointegration: an application to the sterling and deutschemark exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 75-88, March.
    31. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    32. Buiter, Willem H, 1980. "The Macroeconomics of Dr. Pangloss: A Critical Survey of the New Classical Macroeconomics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(357), pages 34-50, March.
    33. Friedman, Benjamin M., 1980. "Survey evidence on the `rationality' of interest rate expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 453-465, October.
    34. Bryan, Michael F & Gavin, William T, 1986. "Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: A Comparison of Household and Economist Forecasts: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(4), pages 539-544, November.
    35. Boland, Lawrence A, 1979. "A Critique of Friedman's Critics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 503-522, June.
    36. Kapur, Deep & Ravallion, Martin, 1988. "Rational expectations as long-run equilibria: Tests for Indian securities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 363-367.
    37. Fischer, Andreas M, 1989. "Unit Roots and Survey Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(4), pages 451-463, November.
    38. Cuthbertson, Keith, 1991. "The Encompassing Implications of Feedforward versus Feedback Mechanisms: A Reply," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 344-350, April.
    39. Muscatelli, V A, 1989. "A Comparison of the 'Rational Expectations' and 'General-to-Specific' Approaches to Modelling the Demand for M1," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(4), pages 353-375, November.
    40. Smyth, David J., 1992. "Measurement errors in survey forecasts of expected inflation and the rationality of inflation expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 439-448.
    41. Saunders, Peter, 1983. "A Disaggregate Study of the Rationality of Australian Producers' Price Expectations," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 51(4), pages 380-398, December.
    42. Deaves, Richard & Melino, Angelo & Pesando, James E., 1987. "The response of interest rates to the Federal Reserve's weekly money announcements : The 'puzzle' of anticipated money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 393-404, May.
    43. Shiller, Robert J., 1978. "Rational expectations and the dynamic structure of macroeconomic models : A critical review," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-44, January.
    44. Stockton, David J & Glassman, James E, 1987. "An Evaluation of the Forecast Performance of Alternative Models of Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(1), pages 108-117, February.
    45. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
    46. Brown, Bryan W & Maital, Shlomo, 1981. "What Do Economists Know? An Empirical Study of Experts' Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(2), pages 491-504, March.
    47. Holden, K & Peel, D A, 1990. "On Testing for Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Forecasts," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 58(2), pages 120-127, June.
    48. Robert J. Barro & Mark Rush, 1980. "Unanticipated Money and Economic Activity," NBER Chapters, in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 23-73, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    49. Cukierman, Alex, 1986. "Measuring inflationary expectations: A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 315-324, March.
    50. Figlewski, Stephen & Wachtel, Paul, 1981. "The Formation of Inflationary Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(1), pages 1-10, February.
    51. Pearce, Douglas K, 1987. "Short-term Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Monthly Survey: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(3), pages 388-395, August.
    52. Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Barth, J. R. & Tinsley, P. A., 1982. "The rational expectations approach to economic modelling," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 125-147, November.
    53. Horne, Jocelyn, 1981. "Rational Expectations and the Defris-Williams Inflationary Expectations Series," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 57(158), pages 261-268, September.
    54. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    55. Pesaran, M Hashem, 1985. "Formation of Inflation Expectations in British Manufacturing Industries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(380), pages 948-975, December.
    56. Matthews, Kent, 1985. "Forecasting with a Rational Expectations Model of the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 47(4), pages 311-336, November.
    57. Pearce, Douglas K, 1979. "Comparing Survey and Rational Measures of Expected Inflation: Forecast Performance and Interest Rate Effects," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(4), pages 447-456, November.
    58. Avraham, David & Ungar, Meyer & Zilberfarb, Ben-Zion, 1987. "Are foreign exchange forecasts rational? : An empirical note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 291-293.
    59. Taylor, Mark P, 1988. "What Do Investment Managers Know? An Empirical Study of Practitioners' Predictions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(218), pages 185-202, May.
    60. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1986. "Are foreign exchange forecasts rational? : New evidence from survey data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 277-281.
    61. Nelson, Charles R, 1975. "Rational Expectations and the Predictive Efficiency of Economic Models," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(3), pages 331-343, July.
    62. Frank de Leeuw & Michael J. McKelvey, 1981. "Price Expectations of Business Firms," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 299-314.
    63. Walters, A A, 1971. "Consistent Expectations, Distributed Lags and the Quantity Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 81(322), pages 273-281, June.
    64. Glazer, Rashi & Steckel, Joel H. & Winer, Russell S., 1990. "Judgmental forecasts in a competitive environment: Rational vs. adaptive expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 149-162, July.
    65. A. Steven Englander & Gary Stone, 1989. "Inflation expectations surveys as predictors of inflation and behavior in financial and labor markets," Research Paper 8918, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    66. Gourieroux, Christian & Pradel, Jacqueline, 1986. "Direct test of the rational expectation hypothesis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 265-284, April.
    67. Peel, D. A. & Pope, P. F., 1989. "Empirical evidence on the properties of exchange rate forecasts and the risk premium," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 387-391, December.
    68. Feige, Edgar L & Pearce, Douglas K, 1976. "Economically Rational Expectations: Are Innovations in the Rate of Inflation Independent of Innovations in Measures of Monetary and Fiscal Policy?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 499-522, June.
    69. Chow, Gregory C, 1989. "Rational versus Adaptive Expectations in Present Value Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 376-384, August.
    70. Noble, Nicholas R, 1982. "Granger Causality and Expectational Rationality: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(4), pages 532-537, November.
    71. Rao, B Bhaskara, 1992. "Some Further Evidence on the Policy Ineffectiveness Proposition," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(414), pages 1244-1250, September.
    72. Stockton, David J & Struckmeyer, Charles S, 1989. "Tests of the Specification and Predictive Accuracy of Nonnested Models of Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 275-283, May.
    73. LeRoy, Stephen F, 1989. "Efficient Capital Markets and Martingales," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1583-1621, December.
    74. Roy H. Webb, 1987. "The irrelevance of tests for bias in series of macroeconomic forecasts," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 73(Nov), pages 3-9.
    75. Batchelor, Roy A & Orr, Adrian B, 1988. "Inflation Expectations Revisited," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(219), pages 317-331, August.
    76. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1985. "Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(4), pages 293-311, October.
    77. Jeong, Jinook & Maddala, G S, 1991. "Measurement Errors and Tests for Rationality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 431-439, October.
    78. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1989. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: A Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 28-61, March.
    79. Friedman, Benjamin M., 1979. "Optimal expectations and the extreme information assumptions of `rational expectations' macromodels," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 23-41, January.
    80. Fischer, Stanley, 1988. "Recent Developments in Macroeconomics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 294-339, June.
    81. Stephen J. DeCanio, 1979. "Rational Expectations and Learning from Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 93(1), pages 47-57.
    82. John A. Carlson, 1977. "A Study of Price Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 6, number 1, pages 27-56, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    83. Batchelor, R A, 1986. "Quantitative v. Qualitative Measures of Inflation Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(2), pages 99-120, May.
    84. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
    85. Rush, Mark & Waldo, Douglas, 1988. "On the Policy Ineffectiveness Proposition and a Keynesian Alternative," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 498-503, June.
    86. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    87. Ivaldi, Marc, 1992. "Survey Evidence on the Rationality of Expectations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 225-241, July-Sept.
    88. Cyert, Richard M & DeGroot, Morris H, 1974. "Rational Expectations and Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 521-536, May/June.
    89. Ravallion, Martin, 1985. "The Information Efficiency of Traders' Price Expectations in a Bangladesh Price Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 47(2), pages 171-184, May.
    90. de Leeuw, Frank & McKelvey, Michael J, 1984. "Price Expectations of Business Firms: Bias in the Short and Long Run," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(1), pages 99-110, March.
    91. Batchelor, R. A., 1981. "Aggregate expectations under the stable laws," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 199-210, June.
    92. Patterson, Kerry David, 1987. "The Development of Expectations Generating Schemes Which Are Asymptotically Rational," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 34(1), pages 1-18, February.
    93. Blume, L. E. & Bray, M. M. & Easley, D., 1982. "Introduction to the stability of rational expectations equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 313-317, April.
    94. G. S. Maddala, 1991. "Survey Data on Expectations: What Have We Learnt?," International Economic Association Series, in: Marc Nerlove (ed.), Issues in Contemporary Economics, chapter 12, pages 319-344, Palgrave Macmillan.
    95. Stockman, Alan C., 1987. "Economic theory and exchange rate forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 3-15.
    96. Margaritis, Dimitris, 1990. "A time-varying model of rational learning," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 309-314, August.
    97. Rich, Robert W, 1989. "Testing the Rationality of Inflation Forecasts from Survey Data: Another Look at the SRC Expected Price Change Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 682-686, November.
    98. Fackler, James & Stanhouse, Bryan, 1977. "Rationality of the Michigan Price Expectations Data: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(4), pages 662-666, November.
    99. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1980. "Survey Evidence on The Rationality of Interest Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 0261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    100. Emile Grunberg & Franco Modigliani, 1954. "The Predictability of Social Events," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(6), pages 465-465.
    101. Nerlove, Marc & Grether, David M. & Carvalho, José L., 1979. "Analysis of Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780125157506 edited by Shell, Karl.
    102. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-254, April.
    103. Holden, K & Peel, D A, 1977. "An Empirical Investigation of Inflationary Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 39(4), pages 291-299, November.
    104. Leonard, Jonathan S, 1982. "Wage Expectations in the Labor Market: Survey Evidence on Rationality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(1), pages 157-161, February.
    105. Maddock, Rodney & Carter, Michael, 1982. "A Child's Guide to Rational Expectations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 39-51, March.
    106. Unknown, 1986. "Letters," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(4), pages 1-9.
    107. Pesaran, M Hashem, 1988. "On the Policy Ineffectiveness Proposition and a Keynesian Alternative: A Rejoinder," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 504-508, June.
    108. Rik Hafer & David H. Resler, 1981. "On the rationality of inflation forecasts: a new look at the Livingston data," Working Papers 1981-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    109. repec:cdl:ucsbec:13-89 is not listed on IDEAS
    110. Ann Hansen, 1989. "Inventories, Inflation, and Price Expectations," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 439-459, March.
    111. Marc Nerlove (ed.), 1991. "Issues in Contemporary Economics," International Economic Association Series, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-11576-1, December.
    112. Struth, Friedrich K, 1984. "Modelling Expectations Formation with Parameter-Adaptive Filters: An Empirical Application to the Livingston Forecasts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 46(3), pages 211-239, August.
    113. Schroeter, John R. & Smith, Scott L., 1986. "A Reexamination of the Rationality of the Livingston Price Expectations," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11119, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    114. Hendry, David F, 1988. "The Encompassing Implications of Feedback versus Feedforward Mechanisms in Econometrics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 132-149, March.
    115. Blomqvist, Hans C., 1989. "The `rationality' of expectations: An experimental approach," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 275-299, June.
    116. Zellner, Arnold, 1986. "Biased predictors, rationality and the evaluation of forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 45-48.
    117. Baghestani, Hamid & Noori, Esmail, 1988. "On the rationality of the Michigan monthly survey of inflationary expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 333-335.
    118. Batchelor, Roy A & Dua, Pami, 1989. "Household versus Economist Forecasts of Inflation: A Reassessment: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(2), pages 252-257, May.
    119. Mullineaux, Donald J, 1978. "On Testing for Rationality: Another Look at the Livingston Price Expectations Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(2), pages 329-336, April.
    120. Kenneth D. West, 1988. "Bubbles, Fads, and Stock Price Volatility Tests: A Partial Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 2574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    121. Jordan, James S. & Radner, Roy, 1982. "Rational expectations in microeconomic models: An overview," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 201-223, April.
    122. Stein, Jerome L, 1981. "Monetarist, Keynesian, and New Classical Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 139-144, May.
    123. Brunner, Karl & Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H., 1980. "Stagflation, persistent unemployment and the permanence of economic shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 467-492, October.
    124. Blake, David, 1984. "Complete systems methods of estimating models with rational and adaptive expectations : A case study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 137-150, March.
    125. Baghestani, Hamid, 1992. "Survey Evidence on the Muthian Rationality of the Inflation Forecasts of U.S. Consumers," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(2), pages 173-186, May.
    126. Shinji Takagi, 1991. "Exchange Rate Expectations: A Survey of Survey Studies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 156-183, March.
    127. Jean-Pierre Gourlaouen, 1983. "Une analyse économétrique des liens entre l'inflation, le chômage et la nature des anticipations," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 34(5), pages 971-986.
    128. Stanley Fischer, 1980. "Rational Expectations and Economic Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fisc80-1, July.
    129. Maccini, Louis J, 1981. "Adjustment Lags, Economically Rational Expectations and Price Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(2), pages 213-222, May.
    130. Lee, Bong-Soo, 1991. "On the Rationality of Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 365-370, May.
    131. Mullineaux, Donald J, 1980. "Inflation Expectations and Money Growth in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(1), pages 149-161, March.
    132. Cagan, Phillip, 1991. "Expectations in the German hyperinflation reconsidered," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 552-560, December.
    133. Batchelor, R. A., 1982. "Expectations, output and inflation : The European experience," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-25.
    134. Bohara, Alok K, 1991. "Testing the Rational-Expectations Hypothesis: Further Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(3), pages 337-340, July.
    135. Craig S. Hakkio & Mark Rush, 1987. "Market efficiency and cointegration," Research Working Paper 87-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    136. McNees, Stephen K, 1978. "The "Rationality" of Economic Forecasts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 301-305, May.
    137. Galbraith, John W, 1988. "Modelling Expectations Formation with Measurement Errors," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 412-428, June.
    138. Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Expectations, Risk and Uncertainty in the Foreign Exchange Market: Some Results Based on Survey Data," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 57(2), pages 142-153, June.
    139. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1985. "Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    140. Liu, Peter C. & Maddala, G. S., 1992. "Rationality of survey data and tests for market efficiency in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 366-381, August.
    141. Patterson, K D & Heravi, S M, 1992. "Efficient Forecasts or Measurement Errors? Some Evidence for Revisions to United Kingdom GDP Growth Rates," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 60(3), pages 249-263, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michela Nardo, 2003. "The Quantification of Qualitative Survey Data: A Critical Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 645-668, December.
    2. Carl Bonham & Richard Cohen & Shigeyuki Abe, 2006. "The Rationality and Heterogeneity of Survey Forecasts of the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate: A Reexamination," Working Papers 200611, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    3. Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Christian C.P. Wolff, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 140-165, February.
    4. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July.
    5. repec:lan:wpaper:470 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Grant, Alan P. & Thomas, Lloyd B., 2001. "Supply shocks and the rationality of inflation forecasts," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 515-532.
    7. Zijp, R. van, 1990. "New classical monetary business cycle theory," Serie Research Memoranda 0058, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    8. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review of Alternative Expectations Regimes in Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, and Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 213-231, October.
    9. Michael P. Keane & David E. Runkle, 1989. "Are economic forecasts rational?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 13(Spr), pages 26-33.
    10. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Chinn, Menzie D, 1993. "Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests for a Cross Section of 17 Currencies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 136-144, June.
    11. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Croushore Dean, 2010. "An Evaluation of Inflation Forecasts from Surveys Using Real-Time Data," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, May.
    13. Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "Expectations Formation and Risk in Three Financial Markets: Surveying What the Surveys Say," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 69-100, February.
    14. repec:lan:wpaper:425 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:lan:wpaper:413 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Sotiris Tsolacos & Tony McGough, 1999. "Rational Expectations, Uncertainty and Cyclical Activity in the British Office Market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 36(7), pages 1137-1149, June.
    18. Davies, Anthony & Lahiri, Kajal, 1995. "A new framework for analyzing survey forecasts using three-dimensional panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 205-227, July.
    19. Jordi Pons-Novell, 2003. "Strategic bias, herding behaviour and economic forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 67-77.
    20. Victor Zarnowitz, 1984. "Business Cycles Analysis and Expectational Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 1378, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Catherine Doz, 1993. "Note sur les tests de rationalité des prévisions," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 108(2), pages 129-133.
    22. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    23. Artur C. B. Da Silva Lopes, 1998. "On the 'restricted cointegration test' as a test of the rational expectations hypothesis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 269-278, February.
    24. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Hakan Kara & Defne Mutluer, 2008. "Expectations, Communication and Monetary Policy in Turkey," Working Papers 0801, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    hipótese das expecativas racionais; críticas; aprendizagem; testes indirectos; testes directos; resultados empíricos; inflação;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9699. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.