Exchange Rate Expectations: A Survey of Survey Studies
AbstractThe empirical literature on survey-based exchange rate expectations is briefly surveyed. The literature in general supports the presence of a nonzero risk premium and rejects the hypothesis of rational expectations. The crucial result is that, whereas short-run expectations tend to move away from some long-run "normal" values, long-run expectations tend to move back toward them. If this behavior of short-run expectations increases the volatility of exchange rate movements, there may be a basis for an official measure to minimize short-run exchange rate movements.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund.
Volume (Year): 38 (1991)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
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Web page: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/
Postal: Palgrave Macmillan Journals, Subscription Department, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS, UK
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