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An evaluation of survey exchange rate forecasts

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  • Lai, Kon S.

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  • Lai, Kon S., 1990. "An evaluation of survey exchange rate forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 61-65, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:32:y:1990:i:1:p:61-65
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    Cited by:

    1. Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992) [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided tour ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
    2. Oliver Blaskowitz & Helmut Herwartz, 2009. "Adaptive forecasting of the EURIBOR swap term structure," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 575-594.
    3. Y. Tsuchiya, 2014. "A directional evaluation of corporate executives' exchange rate forecasts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 95-101, January.
    4. Blaskowitz, Oliver & Herwartz, Helmut, 2014. "Testing the value of directional forecasts in the presence of serial correlation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 30-42.
    5. Greer, Mark, 2003. "Directional accuracy tests of long-term interest rate forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 291-298.
    6. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    7. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2013. "Do corporate executives have accurate predictions for the economy? A directional analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 167-174.
    8. Oliver Blaskowitz & Helmut Herwartz, 2008. "Testing directional forecast value in the presence of serial correlation," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-073, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    9. Clements, Kenneth W. & Lan, Yihui, 2010. "A new approach to forecasting exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1424-1437, November.
    10. Ash, J. C. K. & Smyth, D. J. & Heravi, S. M., 1997. "The accuracy of OECD forecasts of the international economy: balance of payments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 969-987, December.
    11. Shang-Jin Wei & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Are Option-Implied Forecasts of Exchange Rate Volatility Excessively Variable?," NBER Working Papers 3910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Masahiro Ashiya, 2003. "The directional accuracy of 15-months-ahead forecasts made by the IMF," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 331-333.
    13. Frederik Kunze & Mario Gruppe, 2014. "Performance of Survey Forecasts by Professional Analysts: Did the European Debt Crisis Make it Harder or Perhaps Even Easier?," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-12, February.
    14. Jordi Pons, 2001. "The rationality of price forecasts: a directional analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 287-290.
    15. Rahimi, Fatemeh & Mousavian Anaraki, Seyed Alireza, 2020. "Proposing an Innovative Model Based on the Sierpinski Triangle for Forecasting EUR/USD Direction Changes," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 15(4), pages 423-444, October.
    16. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Do production managers predict turning points? A directional analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-8.
    17. Masahiro Ashiya, 2006. "Are 16-month-ahead forecasts useful? A directional analysis of Japanese GDP forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 201-207.
    18. Carl Bonham & Richard Cohen & Shigeyuki Abe, 2006. "The Rationality and Heterogeneity of Survey Forecasts of the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate: A Reexamination," Working Papers 200611, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    19. M. Manzur, 1990. "Key Issues in Exchange Rate Economics," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 90-07, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    20. Ash, J. C. K. & Smyth, D. J. & Heravi, S. M., 1998. "Are OECD forecasts rational and useful?: a directional analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 381-391, September.

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